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1.  Primary prevention of coronary heart disease: integration of new data, evolving views, revised goals, and role of rosuvastatin in management. A comprehensive survey 
A recent explosion in the amount of cardiovascular risk and incipient, undetected subclinical cardiovascular pathology has swept across the globe. Nearly 70% of adult Americans are overweight or obese; the prevalence of visceral obesity stands at 53% and continues to rise. At any one time, 55% of the population is on a weight-loss diet, and almost all fail. Fewer than 15% of adults or children exercise sufficiently, and over 60% engage in no vigorous activity. Among adults, 11%–13% have diabetes, 34% have hypertension, 36% have prehypertension, 36% have prediabetes, 12% have both prediabetes and prehypertension, and 15% of the population with either diabetes, hypertension, or dyslipidemia are undiagnosed. About one-third of the adult population, and 80% of the obese, have fatty livers. With 34% of children overweight or obese, prevalence having doubled in just a few years, type 2 diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and fatty livers in children are at their highest levels ever. Half of adults have at least one cardiovascular risk factor. Not even 1% of the population attains ideal cardiovascular health. Despite falling coronary death rates for decades, coronary heart disease (CHD) death rates in US women 35 to 54 years of age may now be increasing because of the obesity epidemic. Up to 65% of patients do not have their conventional risk biomarkers under control. Only 30% of high risk patients with CHD achieve aggressive low density lipoprotein (LDL) targets. Of those patients with multiple risk factors, fewer than 10% have all of them adequately controlled. Even when patients are titrated to evidence-based targets, about 70% of cardiac events remain unaddressed. Undertreatment is also common. About two-thirds of high risk primary care patients are not taking needed medications for dyslipidemia. Poor patient adherence, typically below 50%, adds further difficulty. Hence, after all such fractional reductions are multiplied, only a modest portion of total cardiovascular risk burden is actually being eliminated, and the full potential of risk reduction remains unrealized. Worldwide the situation is similar, with the prevalence of metabolic syndrome approaching 50%. Primordial prevention, resulting from healthful lifestyle habits that do not permit the appearance of risk factors, is the preferred method to lower cardiovascular risk. Lowering the prevalence of obesity is the most urgent matter, and is pleiotropic since it affects blood pressure, lipid profiles, glucose metabolism, inflammation, and atherothrombotic disease progression. Physical activity also improves several risk factors, with the additional potential to lower heart rate. Given the current obstacles, success of primordial prevention remains uncertain. At the same time, the consequences of delay and inaction will inevitably be disastrous, and the sense of urgency mounts. Since most CHD events arise in a large subpopulation of low- to moderate-risk individuals, identifying a high proportion of those who will go on to develop events with accuracy remains unlikely. Without a refinement in risk prediction, the current model of targeting high-risk individuals for aggressive therapy may not succeed alone, especially given the rising burden of risk. Estimating cardiovascular risk over a period of 10 years, using scoring systems such as Framingham or SCORE, continues to enjoy widespread use and is recommended for all adults. Limitations in the former have been of concern, including the under- or over-estimation of risk in specific populations, a relatively short 10-year risk horizon, focus on myocardial infarction and CHD death, and exclusion of family history. Classification errors may occur in up to 37% of individuals, particularly women and the young. Several different scoring systems are discussed in this review. The use of lifetime risk is an important conceptual advance, since ≥90% of young adults with a low 10-year risk have a lifetime risk of ≥39%; over half of all American adults have a low 10-year risk but a high lifetime risk. At age 50 the absence of traditional risk factors is associated with extremely low lifetime risk and significantly greater longevity. Pathological and epidemiological data confirm that atherosclerosis begins in early childhood, and advances seamlessly and inexorably throughout life. Risk factors in childhood are similar to those in adults, and track between stages of life. When indicated, aggressive treatment should begin at the earliest indication, and be continued for years. For those patients at intermediate risk according to global risk scores, C-reactive protein (CRP), coronary artery calcium (CAC), and carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) are available for further stratification. Using statins for primary prevention is recommended by guidelines, is prevalent, but remains underprescribed. Statin drugs are unrivaled, evidence-based, major weapons to lower cardiovascular risk. Even when low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) targets are attained, over half of patients continue to have disease progression and clinical events. This residual risk is of great concern, and multiple sources of remaining risk exist. Though clinical evidence is incomplete, altering or raising the blood high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) level continues to be pursued. Of all agents available, rosuvastatin produces the greatest reduction in LDL-C, LDL-P, and improvement in apoA-I/apoB, together with a favorable safety profile. Several recent proposals and methods to lower cardiovascular risk are reviewed. A combination of approaches, such as the addition of lifetime risk, refinement of risk prediction, guideline compliance, novel treatments, improvement in adherence, and primordial prevention, including environmental and social intervention, will be necessary to lower the present high risk burden.
PMCID: PMC3140289  PMID: 21792295
primary prevention; cardiovascular risk; coronary heart disease; primordial prevention; rosuvastatin; JUPITER study; statin drugs; C-reactive protein; inflammation; low-density lipoprotein; high-density lipoprotein; diabetes; metabolic syndrome; Framingham risk score; Reynolds risk score; SCORE; coronary artery calcification; carotid intima-media thickness; hypertension; obesity; non-HDL-cholesterol; LDL-P; dysfunctional HDL; lifetime risk; advanced lipid testing; Bogalusa Heart Study
2.  Coronary Artery Calcification Compared with Carotid Intima-Media Thickness in Prediction of Cardiovascular Disease Incidence: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) 
Archives of internal medicine  2008;168(12):1333-1339.
Coronary artery calcium (CAC) and carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) are noninvasive measures of atherosclerosis that consensus panels have recommended as possible additions to risk factor assessment for predicting the probability of cardiovascular disease (CVD) occurrence.
To assess whether maximum carotid IMT or CAC (Agatston Score) is the better predictor of incident CVD.
Design, Setting, Patients
Prospective cohort study of 45–84 year-olds initially free of CVD (n = 6,698) in four ethnic groups, with standardized carotid IMT and CAC measures at baseline, in six field centers of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).
Main Outcome Measure(s)
Incident CVD events (coronary heart disease, stroke, and fatal CVD) over a maximum of 5.3 years of follow-up.
There were 222 CVD events during follow-up. CAC was associated more strongly than carotid IMT with risk of incident CVD. After adjustment for each other and traditional CVD risk factors, the hazard of CVD increased 2.1-fold (95% CI 1.8–2.5) for each standard deviation greater level of log-transformed CAC, versus 1.3-fold (95% CI 1.1–1.4) for each standard deviation greater maximum IMT. For coronary heart disease, the hazard ratios per standard deviation increment were 2.5-fold (95% CI 2.1–3.1) for CAC and 1.2-fold (95% CI 1.0–1.4) for IMT. An ROC analysis also suggested that CAC predicted incident CVD better than IMT did.
Although whether and how to clinically use bio-imaging tests of subclinical atherosclerosis remains a topic of debate, this study found that CAC predicts subsequent CVD events better than does carotid IMT.
PMCID: PMC2555989  PMID: 18574091
3.  Association Between Duration of Overall and Abdominal Obesity Beginning in Young Adulthood and Coronary Artery Calcification in Middle Age 
JAMA  2013;310(3):280-288.
Younger individuals are experiencing a greater cumulative exposure to excess adiposity over their lifetime. However, few studies have determined the consequences of long-term obesity.
To examine whether the duration of overall and abdominal obesity was associated with the presence and 10-year progression of coronary artery calcification (CAC), a subclinical predictor of coronary heart disease.
Prospective study of 3275 white and black adults aged 18 to 30 years at baseline in 1985–1986 who did not initially have overall obesity (body mass index [BMI] ≥30) or abdominal obesity (men: waist circumference [WC] >102 cm; women: >88 cm) in the multicenter, community-based Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study. Participants completed computed tomography scanning for the presence of CAC during the 15-, 20-, or 25-year follow-up examinations. Duration of overall and abdominal obesity was calculated using repeat measurements of BMI and WC, respectively, performed 2, 5, 7, 10, 15, 20, and 25 years after baseline.
Presence of CAC was measured by computed tomography at the year 15 (2000–2001), year 20 (2005–2006), or year 25 (2010–2011) follow-up examinations. Ten-year progression of CAC (2000–2001 to 2010–2011) was defined as incident CAC in 2010–2011 or an increase in CAC score of 20 Agatston units or greater.
During follow-up, 40.4% and 41.0% developed overall and abdominal obesity, respectively. Rates of CAC per 1000 person-years were higher for those who experienced more than 20 years vs 0 years of overall obesity (16.0 vs 11.0, respectively) and abdominal obesity (16.7 vs 11.0). Approximately 25.2% and 27.7% of those with more than 20 years of overall and abdominal obesity, respectively, experienced progression of CAC vs 20.2% and 19.5% of those with 0 years. After adjustment for BMI or WC and potential confounders, the hazard ratios for CAC for each additional year of overall or abdominal obesity were 1.02 (95% CI, 1.01–1.03) and 1.03 (95% CI, 1.02–1.05), respectively. The adjusted odds ratios for CAC progression were 1.04 (95% CI, 1.01–1.06) and 1.04 (95% CI, 1.01–1.07), respectively. Associations were attenuated but largely persisted following additional adjustment for potential intermediate metabolic factors during follow-up.
Longer duration of overall and abdominal obesity was associated with subclinical coronary heart disease and its progression through midlife independent of the degree of adiposity. Preventing or at least delaying the onset of obesity in young adulthood may lower the risk of developing atherosclerosis through middle age.
PMCID: PMC4226407  PMID: 23860986
4.  A comparison of outcomes with coronary artery calcium scanning in Unselected Populations - The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) and Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study (HNR) 
The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) and the Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study (HNR)) differed in regards to informing physicians and patients of the results of their subclinical atherosclerosis.
This study investigates whether the association of coronary artery calcium (CAC) with incident non-fatal and fatal cardiovascular (CVD) events is different among these two large, population-based observational studies.
All Caucasian subjects aged 45–75 years, free of baseline cardiovascular disease were included (n=2232 in MESA, n=3119 HNR participants). We studied the association between CAC and event rates at 5 years, including hard cardiac events (MI, cardiac death, resuscitated cardiac arrest), and separately added revascularizations, and strokes (fatal and non-fatal) to determine adjusted hazard ratios (HR).
Both cohorts demonstrated very low CHD (including revascularization) rates with zero calcium (1.13 and 1.16% over 5 years in MESA and HNR respectively) and increasing significantly in both groups with CAC 100–399 (6.71 and 4.52% in MESA and HNR) and CAC >400 (12.5 and 13.54% in MESA and HNR respectively) and demonstrating strong independent predictive values for scores of 100–399 and >400, despite multivariable adjustment for risk factors. Risk factor adjusted five year revascularization rates were nearly identical for HNR and MESA, and generally low for both studies (1.4% [45/3119] for HNR and 1.9% [43/2232] for MESA) over 5 years.
Across two culturally diverse populations, CAC >400 is a strong predictor of events. High CAC did not determininistically result in revascularization and knowledge of CAC did not increase revascularizations.
PMCID: PMC3732186  PMID: 23849491
coronary artery calcification; subclinical atherosclerosis; Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA); Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study (HNR)
5.  Circulating soluble ICAM-1 and subclinical atherosclerosis: The Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study 
Clinical chemistry  2011;58(2):10.1373/clinchem.2011.168559.
Soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (sICAM-1) is associated with endothelial dysfunction and clinical cardiovascular disease. We investigated the relationship of subclinical atherosclerosis with sICAM-1 concentration.
sICAM-1 concentration was assayed at year 15 of the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study (black and white men and women, average age 40 years). We assessed progression of coronary artery calcification through year 20 (CAC, n=2378), and both carotid artery stenosis (n=2432) and intima media thickness at year 20 (IMT, n = 2240).
Median sICAM-1 was 145.9 ng/ml. Among a subgroup with advanced atherosclerotic plaque (either CAC or stenosis), IMT was 0.010 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.003–0.017 mm) higher per standard deviation of sICAM-1 (44 ng/ml) in a model adjusted for age, race, sex, clinic, smoking, exercise, body size, education, blood pressure, antihypertensive medication, plasma lipids, and cholesterol lowering medication. With the same adjustment, the odds ratios (OR) for the presence of year 20 carotid artery stenosis per SD of sICAM-1 was 1.12 (CI 1.01–1.25, p<0.04), while for occurrence of CAC progression the OR was 1.16 (CI 1.04–1.31, p<0.01). The associations with CAC and carotid stenosis were strongest in the top 20th of the sICAM-1 distribution.
sICAM-1 concentration may be an early biomarker that indicates changes in the artery wall that accompany atherosclerosis, as well as the presence of advanced plaque in the coronary and carotid arteries. This finding holds in people with low total burden of atherosclerosis, decades prior to the development of clinical CVD.
PMCID: PMC3867124  PMID: 22179741
6.  Long-Term Effect of Different Physical Activity Levels on Subclinical Atherosclerosis in Middle-Aged Men: A 25-Year Prospective Study 
PLoS ONE  2014;9(1):e85209.
The purpose of the study was to investigate the influence of lifetime physical activity (PA) on selected indices of atherosclerosis in longitudinal observation of middle-aged men.
The subject of the study was a cohort of 101 men (mean age 59,7±9,0 years), free of cardiovascular symptoms and treatment, participating in follow-up examinations in the years 1985/90-2011/12. Self-report PA was assessed by interviewer-administered Seven-Day PA Recall and Historical PA questionnaire. Subclinical atherosclerosis was measured by assessing the coronary artery calcification (CAC) according to Agatston's method using multi-slice computed tomography; the carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) using high-resolution B-mode ultrasound; and the reactive hyperemia index (RHI) using peripheral arterial tonometry (EndoPAT2000). The participants were initially divided into three groups according to tertiles of exercise-related energy expenditure (EE) in kcal/week at baseline, i.e. <2050 (low-to-moderate; n = 33), 2050–3840 (high; n = 34), >3840 (very high; n = 34).
The low-to-moderate, high and very high PA groups were comparable in terms of age and atherosclerosis risk factors at baseline. No linear relationship was found between PA and CAC, IMT and RHI. Men who maintained low-to-moderate (n = 26), high (n = 21) and very high (n = 15) PA level had the mean CAC of 286.1±361.9, 10.7±28.9, and 106.1±278.3 (p<0.001 for low-to moderate vs high; p<0.05 for low-to-moderate vs very high); the mean IMT of 0.751±0.19 mm, 0,641±0.26 mm, and 0.750±0.60 mm (p>0.05); and the mean RHI of 1.69±0.4, 2.00±0.4, and 2.13±0.5 (p for trend = 0.050), respectively. No cases of CAC>400, IMT ≥0.9 and RHI<1.67 were noted only among men with maintained high PA level. At final examination men with high and very high PA had more favorable cardiometabolic profile than men with lower PA.
Maintaining regular high PA level through young and middle adulthood may protect against atherosclerosis as measured by CAC, IMT and RHI.
PMCID: PMC3896363  PMID: 24465505
7.  A High Ankle Brachial Index is Associated with Greater Left Ventricular Mass: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis 
Arterial stiffness leads to left ventricular (LV) mass through non-atherosclerotic pathways in mice. In humans, a high ankle brachial index (ABI) indicates stiff peripheral arteries, and is associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. Whether high ABI is associated with LV mass in humans, and whether this may reflect consequences of arterial stiffness, atherosclerosis, or both is unknown.
Among 4,972 MESA participants without clinical CVD, we used linear regression to evaluate the association of low (< 0.90) and high (>1.40 or incompressible) ABI with LV mass by cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Intermediate ABIs served as the reference category. To determine the effect of subclinical atherosclerosis, models were adjusted for common and internal carotid intima media thickness (cIMT) and log-transformed coronary artery calcification (Ln[CAC+1]).
Compared to subjects with intermediate ABI, LV mass was higher with either low (2.70g/m2 higher, 95% CI 0.65–4.75) or high ABI (6.84 g/m2 higher, 95% CI 3.2–10.47) after adjustment for traditional CVD risk factors, kidney function, and CRP. However, further adjustment for cIMT and CAC substantially attenuated the association of low ABI with LVMI (1.24 g/m2 higher, 95% CI −0.84–3.33), whereas the association of high ABI was minimally altered (6.01 g/m2 higher, 95% CI 2.36–9.67).
High ABI is associated with greater LV mass; an association that is not attenuated with adjustment for subclinical atherosclerosis in non-peripheral arterial beds. High ABI may lead to greater LV mass through non-atherosclerotic pathways.
PMCID: PMC2837506  PMID: 20117440
vascular stiffness; medial arterial calcification; left ventricular mass; heart failure; cardiovascular disease
8.  Carotid artery plaque and progression of coronary artery calcium: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis 
Carotid and coronary atherosclerosis are associated to each other in imaging and autopsy studies. We evaluated whether carotid artery plaque seen on carotid ultrasound can predict incident coronary artery calcification (CAC).
Materials and Methods
We repeated Agatston calcium score measurements in 5445 participants of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) (mean age 57.9 years; 62.9% female). Internal carotid artery lesions were graded as 0%, 1-24%, >25% diameter narrowing and intima-media thickness (IMT) was measured. Plaque was present for any stenosis > 0%. CAC progression was evaluated with multivariable relative risk regression in cases with CAC = 0 at baseline and with multivariable linear regression for CAC > 0 adjusting for cardiovascular risk factors, body mass index, ethnicity, and common carotid IMT.
CAC was positive at baseline in 2708/5445 (49.7%) participants and became positive in 458/2837 (16.1%) at mean interval of 2.4 years between repeat examinations. Plaque and ICA IMT were both strongly associated with presence of CAC. After statistical adjustment, presence of carotid artery plaque significantly predicted incident CAC with a relative risk(RR) of 1.37 (95% Confidence Intervals: 1.12, 1.67). Incident CAC was associated with ICA IMT with an RR of 1.13 (95% Confidence Intervals: 1.03, 1.25) for each mm increase. Progression of CAC was also significantly associated (p < 0.001) with plaque and ICA IMT.
In individuals free of cardiovascular disease, subjective and quantitative measures of carotid artery plaques by ultrasound imaging are associated with CAC incidence and progression.
PMCID: PMC4084492  PMID: 23522805
9.  Walking speed and subclinical atherosclerosis in healthy older adults: the Whitehall II study 
Heart  2010;96(5):380-384.
Extended walking speed is a predictor of incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) in older individuals, but the ability of an objective short-distance walking speed test to stratify the severity of preclinical conditions remains unclear. This study examined whether performance in an 8-ft walking speed test is associated with metabolic risk factors and subclinical atherosclerosis.
Epidemiological cohort.
530 adults (aged 63±6 years, 50.3% male) from the Whitehall II cohort study with no known history or objective signs of CVD.
Main outcome
Electron beam computed tomography and ultrasound was used to assess the presence and extent of coronary artery calcification (CAC) and carotid intima-media thickness (IMT), respectively.
High levels of CAC (Agatston score >100) were detected in 24% of the sample; the mean IMT was 0.75 mm (SD 0.15). Participants with no detectable CAC completed the walking course 0.16 s (95% CI 0.04 to 0.28) faster than those with CAC ≥400. Objectively assessed, but not self-reported, faster walking speed was associated with a lower risk of high CAC (odds ratio 0.62, 95% CI 0.40 to 0.96) and lower IMT (β=−0.04, 95% CI −0.01 to −0.07 mm) in comparison with the slowest walkers (bottom third), after adjusting for conventional risk factors. Faster walking speed was also associated with lower adiposity, C-reactive protein and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol.
Short-distance walking speed is associated with metabolic risk and subclinical atherosclerosis in older adults without overt CVD. These data suggest that a non-aerobically challenging walking test reflects the presence of underlying vascular disease.
PMCID: PMC2921267  PMID: 19955091
Ageing; atherosclerosis; computed tomography scanning; epidemiology; exercise testing; gait speed; imaging; physical function; risk stratification
10.  Association of Endothelial and Oxidative Stress with Metabolic Syndrome and Subclinical Atherosclerosis: Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis 
A cluster of metabolic abnormalities termed metabolic syndrome (MetS) is associated with vascular endothelial dysfunction and oxidative internal milieu. We examined whether the association of MetS with subclinical atherosclerosis is explained by biomarkers of endothelial damage and oxidative stress.
MESA is a population based study of 45-84 year old individuals of four US ethnicities without clinical cardiovascular disease. A random sample of 997 MESA participants had data on the following biomarkers: von Willebrand Factor, soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (sICAM1), CD40 ligand, soluble thrombomodulin, E-selectin, and oxidized LDL (oxLDL). We examined whether the associations of MetS with B-mode ultrasound-defined common and internal carotid intimal medial thickness (IMT) and coronary artery calcium (CAC) measured using computerized tomography were explained by the biomarkers using multiple regression methods.
MetS was associated with higher levels of each of the biomarkers (p<0.001, CD40L suggestive association p=0.004), with greater IMT (p<0.001), and with greater extent of CAC in those in whom CAC was detectable (p=0.01). The association of MetS with measures of subclinical atherosclerosis remained unchanged after adjustment for the biomarkers. After adjusting for MetS, oxLDL was suggestively associated with greater prevalence of detectable CAC (p=0.005) and thicker internal carotid IMT (p=0.002), while sICAM-1was significantly associated with greater prevalence of detectable CAC (p=0.001).
The association of MetS with subclinical atherosclerosis was independent of its association with biomarkers of endothelial damage and oxidative stress, suggesting that metabolic abnormalities and oxidative endothelial damage may lead to atherosclerotic disease through distinct mechanisms.
PMCID: PMC3130805  PMID: 21505504
Metabolic syndrome; biomarkers; coronary artery atherosclerosis; carotid arteries
11.  Burden of Subclinical Cardiovascular Disease in “Metabolically Benign” and “At-Risk” Overweight and Obese Women: The Study of Women's Health Across the Nation (SWAN) 
Atherosclerosis  2011;217(1):179-186.
Metabolically benign obese individuals have a 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk comparable to healthy normal weight individuals. However, the burden of subclinical CVD among metabolically benign obese is not well known.
In cross-sectional analyses of 475 mid-life women, we compared common carotid artery intima media thickness (CCA-IMT), aortic pulse wave velocity (aPWV) and coronary (CAC) and aortic calcification (AC) among three groups: healthy normal weight, metabolically benign overweight/obese (<3 metabolic syndrome components/elevated CRP), and at-risk overweight/obese (≥3 metabolic syndrome components/elevated CRP).
The mean (SD) CCA-IMT and aPWV were lowest in the normal weight group (n=145), followed by the benign overweight/obese (n=260) and at-risk overweight/obese (n=70) groups [CCA-IMT: 0.64 (0.08) vs. 0.68 (0.09) vs. 0.73 (0.13) mm, p<0.001; aPWV: 731.0 (176.4) vs. 809.9 (182.3) vs. 875.7 (228.8) cm/s, p<0.001]. Similar results were found for the frequency (%) of women with increased CAC and AC [CAC: 13 (9%) vs. 53(20%) vs. 28(40%), p<0.001; AC: 47(32%) vs. 130 (50%) vs. 55(79%), p<0.001]. These differences remained significant after multivariable adjustment. Further adjustment for BMI attenuated the statistical significance of differences in aPWV and calcification between benign and at-risk overweight/obese women, but had little effect on the magnitude of these differences.
Metabolically benign overweight/obese women have a significantly greater subclinical CVD burden than normal weight women, despite published data finding similar CVD event rates between the two groups. Prospective studies tracking the progression of subclinical atherosclerosis to clinical CVD in these women are needed.
PMCID: PMC3117052  PMID: 21310415
Obesity phenotypes; subclinical atherosclerosis; carotid intima media thickness; pulse wave velocity; coronary calcification; aortic calcification
12.  Blood Pressure Trajectories in Early Adulthood and Subclinical Atherosclerosis in Middle Age 
Single measures of blood pressure (BP) levels are associated with the development of atherosclerosis; however, long-term patterns in BP and their impact on CVD risk are poorly characterized.
To identify common BP trajectories throughout early adulthood and to determine their association with presence of coronary artery calcification (CAC) during middle age.
We used data from the CARDIA study from baseline in 1985-1986 through 25 years of follow-up (2010-2011).
Prospective cohort study
CARDIA participants were Black and White men and women aged 18-30 years at baseline.
We examined systolic BP, diastolic BP, and mid-BP [calculated as (SBP+DBP)/2 and an important marker of CHD risk among younger populations] at baseline and years 2, 5, 7, 10, 15, 20, and 25. Latent mixture modeling was used to identify trajectories in SBP, DBP and mid-BP over time.
Main Outcome Measure
Coronary artery calcification greater than or equal to Agatston score of 100 Agatston units at year 25.
Among 4,681 participants, we identified 5 distinct mid-BP trajectories: Low-Stable (22% [95% CI 19.9-23.7], n=987), Moderate-Stable (42% [40.3-44.3], n=2,085), Moderate-Increasing (12% [10.4-14.0], n=489), Elevated-Stable (19% [17.1-20.0], n=903) and Elevated-Increasing (5% [4.0-5.5], n=217). As compared to the Low-Stable group, trajectories with elevated BP levels had greater odds of having CAC >100. Adjusted odds ratios (95% CI) were 1.44 (0.83-2.49) for Moderate-Stable, 1.86 (0.91-3.82) for Moderate-Increasing, 2.28 (1.24-3.70) for Elevated-Stable, and 3.70 (1.66-8.20) for Elevated-Increasing groups. The adjusted prevalence of CAC ≥ 100 was 5.8% in the Low-Stable group. These ORs represent an absolute increase of 2.7%, 5%, 6.3% and 12.9% for the prevalence of CAC ≥100 for the Moderate-Stable, Moderate-Increasing, Elevated Stable and Elevated Increasing groups respectively as compared to the Low-Stable Group. Associations were not altered after adjustment for baseline and year 25 BP. Findings were similar for trajectories of isolated systolic BP trajectories, but were attenuated for diastolic BP trajectories.
Conclusions and Relevance
BP trajectories throughout young adulthood vary and higher BP trajectories were associated with an increased risk of CAC in middle age. Long-term trajectories in BP may assist in more accurate identification of individuals with subclinical atherosclerosis.
PMCID: PMC4122296  PMID: 24496536
blood pressure; calcium; epidemiology; risk factors
13.  Longitudinal association between serum urate and subclinical atherosclerosis: the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study 
Journal of internal medicine  2013;274(6):10.1111/joim.12120.
The aim of the present study was to determine whether serum urate (sUA) concentration is positively associated with subclinical atherosclerosis, independent of body mass index (BMI), among generally healthy adults.
Design and setting
The CARDIA study followed 5115 black and white individuals aged 18–30 years in 1985–1986 (year 0). Subclinical atherosclerosis comprised coronary artery calcified plaque (CAC; years 15, 20 and 25) and maximum common carotid intima–media thickness (IMT; year 20). sUA (years 0, 10, 15 and 20) was modelled as gender-specific quartiles that were pooled. Discrete-time hazard regressions and generalized linear regressions were used for analyses.
Mean sUA concentration was lower in women than in men, and increased with age. Adjusting for demographic and lifestyle factors, the highest versus lowest quartile of sUA at year 0 was associated with a 44% [95% confidence interval (CI) 20%, 73%] greater risk of CAC progression from year 15 to 25 (Ptrend < 0.001), which was attenuated by adjustment for BMI at year 0 (Ptrend = 0.45). A stronger association was found between sUA at year 15 and CAC progression at year 20 or 25 (hazard ratio 2.07, 95% CI 1.66, 2.58 for the highest versus lowest sUA quartile Ptrend < 0.001), which was attenuated but remained significant with additional adjustment for BMI at year 15 (Ptrend = 0.01). A greater increment in sUA concentration from year 0 to year 15, independent of change in BMI, was related to a higher risk of CAC progression (Ptrend < 0.001). Similar associations were found between sUA and IMT, but only in men.
sUA may be an early biomarker for subclinical atherosclerosis in young adults; starting in early middle age, sUA predicts subclinical atherosclerosis independently of BMI.
PMCID: PMC3825786  PMID: 23952533
calcified plaque; intima–media thickness; subclinical atherosclerosis; urate; uric acid
14.  The Association of Framingham and Reynolds Risk Scores with Incidence and Progression of Coronary Artery Calcification in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis 
To compare the association of the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) and Reynolds Risk Score (RRS) with subclinical atherosclerosis, assessed by incidence and progression of coronary artery calcium (CAC).
The comparative effectiveness of competing risk algorithms for indentifying subclinical atherosclerosis is unknown.
The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) is a prospective cohort study of 6,814 participants free of baseline CVD. All participants underwent risk factor assessment, as well as baseline and follow-up CAC testing. We assessed the performance of the FRS and RRS to predict CAC incidence and progression using relative risk and robust linear regression.
The study population included 5,140 individuals (61±10 years, 47% males, mean follow-up: 3.1±1.3 years). Among 53% of subjects (n=2,729) with no baseline CAC, 18% (n=510) developed incident CAC. Both the FRS and RRS were significantly predictive of incident CAC [RR 1.40 (95% CI 1.29 – 1.52), and RR 1.41 (95% CI 1.30 – 1.54) per 5% increase in risk, respectively] and CAC progression [mean CAC score change 6.92 (95% CI 5.31 – 8.54) and 6.82 (95% CI 5.51 – 8.14) per 5% increase]. Discordance in risk category classification (< or > 10% 10-year CHD risk) occurred in 13.7%, with only the RRS consistently adding predictive value for incidence and progression of CAC. These subclinical atherosclerosis findings are supported by a CHD events analysis over 5.6±0.7 year follow-up.
Both the RRS and FRS predict onset and progression of subclinical atherosclerosis. However, the RRS may provide additional predictive information when discordance between the scoring systems exists.
PMCID: PMC4079464  PMID: 22051329
coronary artery calcium progression; subclinical atherosclerosis; risk prediction; Reynolds Risk Score; Framingham Risk Score
15.  Genetic ancestry is associated with subclinical cardiovascular disease in African Americans and Hispanics from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) 
Differences in cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden exist among racial/ethnic groups in the United States, with African Americans having the highest prevalence. Subclinical CVD measures have also been shown to differ by race/ethnicity. In the United States, there has been significant intermixing among racial/ethnic groups creating admixed populations. Very little research exists on the relationship of genetic ancestry and subclinical CVD measures.
Methods and Results
These associations were investigated in 712 African-American and 705 Hispanic participants from the MESA candidate gene sub-study. Individual ancestry was estimated from 199 genetic markers using STRUCTURE. Associations of ancestry and coronary artery calcium (CAC) and common and internal carotid intima media thickness (cIMT) were evaluated using log-binomial and linear regression models. Splines indicated linear associations of ancestry with subclinical CVD measures in African-Americans, but presence of threshold effects in Hispanics. Among African Americans, each standard deviation (SD) increase in European ancestry was associated with an 8% (95% CI (1.02, 1.15), p=0.01) greater CAC prevalence. Each SD increase in European ancestry was also associated with a 2% (95% CI (−3.4%, −0.5%), p=0.008) lower common cIMT in African Americans. Among Hispanics, the highest tertile of European ancestry was associated with a 34% greater CAC prevalence, p=0.02 as compared to lowest tertile.
The linear association of ancestry and subclinical CVD suggests that genetic effects may be important in determining CAC and cIMT among African-Americans. Our results also suggest that CAC and common cIMT may be important phenotypes for further study with admixture mapping.
PMCID: PMC2795643  PMID: 20031644
atherosclerosis; calcium; ancestry; epidemiology; genetics
16.  Distribution of 10-year and lifetime predicted risk for cardiovascular disease in the Indian Sentinel Surveillance Study population (cross-sectional survey results) 
BMJ Open  2011;1(1):e000068.
Cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines recommend lifetime risk stratification for primary prevention of CVD, but no such risk stratification has been performed in India to date.
The authors estimated short-term and lifetime predicted CVD risk among 10 054 disease-free, adult Indians in the 20–69-year age group who participated in a nationwide risk factor surveillance study. The study population was then stratified into high short-term (≥10% 10-year risk or diabetes), low short-term (<10%)/high lifetime and low short-term/low lifetime CVD risk groups.
The mean age (SD) of the study population (men=63%) was 40.8±10.9 years. High short-term risk for coronary heart disease was prevalent in more than one-fifth of the population (23.5%, 95% CI 22.7 to 24.4). Nearly half of individuals with low short-term predicted risk (48.2%, 95% CI 47.1 to 49.3) had a high predicted lifetime risk for CVD. While the proportion of individuals with all optimal risk factors was 15.3% (95% CI 14.6% to 16.0%), it was 20.6% (95% CI 18.7% to 22.6%) and 8.8% (95% CI 7.7% to 10.5%) in the highest and lowest educational groups, respectively.
Approximately one in two men and three in four women in India had low short-term predicted risks for CVD in this national study, based on aggregate risk factor burden. However, two in three men and one in two women had high lifetime predicted risks for CVD, highlighting a key limitation of short-term risk stratification.
Article summary
Article focus
Lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the Indian population.
Gender differences in lifetime risk of CVD.
Educational status and lifetime risk of CVD.
Key messages
Nearly half of individuals with a low short-term predicted risk had a high predicted lifetime risk for CVD.
The proportion of individuals with all optimal risk factors was 15%.
A significantly lower proportion of individuals in the lowest educational class had all optimal risk factors compared with individuals in the higher educational class.
Approximately one in two men and three in four women from working families in India had low short-term predicted risk for CVD.
Strengths and limitations of this study
These are the first estimates to combine short-term and lifetime predicted risks for CVD in India.
Our simple cardiovascular-risk-factor counting strategy provides a good way of identifying individuals at high and low lifetime risk for CVD, but the lifetime CVD risk prediction model has not been validated or calibrated in India.
PMCID: PMC3191418  PMID: 22021747
Cardiovascular disease; risk stratification; lifetime risk; cardiac epidemiology; diabetes and endocrinology; lipid disorders; epidemiology; coronary heart disease; echocardiography; hypertension; heart failure; qualitative research; research methodology; India; primary healthcare; diabetes; developing countries; adult cardiology
17.  Expert review on coronary calcium 
While there is no doubt that high risk patients (those with >20% ten year risk of future cardiovascular event) need more aggressive preventive therapy, a majority of cardiovascular events occur in individuals at intermediate risk (10%–20% ten year risk). Accurate risk assessment may be helpful in decreasing cardiovascular events through more appropriate targeting of preventive measures. It has been suggested that traditional risk assessment may be refined with the selective use of coronary artery calcium (CAC) or other methods of subclinical atherosclerosis measurement. Coronary calcification is a marker of atherosclerosis that can be quantified with the use of cardiac CT and it is proportional to the extent and severity of atherosclerotic disease. The published studies demonstrate a high sensitivity of CAC for the presence of coronary artery disease but a lower specificity for obstructive CAD depending on the magnitude of the CAC. Several large clinical trials found clear, incremental predictive value of CAC over the Framingham risk score when used in asymptomatic patients. Based on multiple observational studies, patients with increased plaque burdens (increased CAC) are approximately ten times more likely to suffer a cardiac event over the next 3–5 years. Coronary calcium scores have outperformed conventional risk factors, highly sensitive C-reactive protein (CRP) and carotid intima media thickness (IMT) as a predictor of cardiovascular events. The relevant prognostic information obtained may be useful to initiate or intensify appropriate treatment strategies to slow the progression of atherosclerotic vascular disease. Current data suggests intermediate risk patients may benefit most from further risk stratification with cardiac CT, as CAC testing is effective at identifying increased risk and in motivating effective behavioral changes. This article reviews information pertaining to the clinical use of CAC for assessing coronary atherosclerosis as a useful predictor of coronary artery disease (CAD) in certain population of patients.
PMCID: PMC2496978  PMID: 18561507
computed tomography; electron beam; prognosis; review; coronary artery calcification; calcium score; atherosclerosis; multi-detector computed tomography
18.  The Associations of Fetuin-A with Subclinical Cardiovascular Disease in Community-Dwelling Persons: the Rancho Bernardo Study 
To determine the association of fetuin-A with subclinical CVD in community-living individuals.
Fetuin-A is a hepatic secretory protein that inhibits arterial calcium deposition in vitro. Lower fetuin-A levels are associated with arterial calcification and death in end-stage renal disease populations. The association of fetuin-A with subclinical cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the general population is unknown.
Among 1,375 community-living individuals without prevalent clinical CVD, we measured plasma fetuin-A concentrations measured by ELISA. Peripheral arterial disease (PAD) was defined by ankle brachial index (ABI) < 0.90, coronary artery calcification (CAC) was measured by computed tomography, and common and internal intima media thickness (cIMT) were measured by carotid ultrasound. PAD was measured concurrent with fetuin-A, and CAC and cIMT was measured 4.6 years (mean) later.
Mean age was 70 ± 11 years and 64% were female. Fetuin-A levels were inversely associated with CAC severity. When evaluated as CAC categories (0, 1–100, 101–300, > 300) using ordinal logistic regression, each standard deviation higher fetuin-A was associated with a 31% lower odds of CAC severity (proportional odds ratio [POR] 0.69; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.46, 0.92; p=0.008) in models adjusted for demographics, lifestyle factors, traditional CVD risk factors and kidney function. In contrast, no association of fetuin-A was observed with PAD or high common or internal cIMT in adjusted models.
Lower fetuin-A levels are independently associated with greater CAC severity, but not PAD or cIMT. If confirmed, fetuin-A may mark calcium deposition within the vasculature, but not atherosclerosis per se.
PMCID: PMC3224791  PMID: 22115642
Fetuin-A; Cardiovascular Disease; Coronary Artery Calcification
19.  Association between Obesity, hsCRP ≥2 mg/L, and Subclinical Atherosclerosis: Implications of JUPITER from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) 
High-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) levels are closely associated with abdominal obesity, metabolic syndrome, and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. The JUPITER trial has encouraged using hsCRP ≥2 mg/L to guide statin therapy; however the association of hsCRP to atherosclerosis, independent of obesity, remains unknown.
Methods and Results
We studied 6,760 participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). Participants were stratified into 4 groups: non-obese/low hsCRP, non-obese/high hsCRP, obese/low hsCRP, and obese/high hsCRP. Using multivariable logistic and robust linear regression, we described the association with subclinical atherosclerosis, using coronary artery calcium (CAC) and carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT). Mean BMI was 28.3 ± 5.5 kg/m2, and median hsCRP was 1.9 mg/L (0.84 – 4.26). High hsCRP, in the absence of obesity, was not associated with CAC and was mildly associated with cIMT. Obesity was strongly associated with CAC and cIMT independent of hsCRP. When obesity and high hsCRP were both present, there was no evidence of multiplicative interaction. Similar associations were seen among 2,083 JUPITER-eligible individuals.
High hsCRP, as defined by JUPITER, was not associated with CAC and was mildly associated with cIMT in the absence of obesity. In contrast, obesity was associated with both measures of subclinical atherosclerosis independent of hsCRP status.
PMCID: PMC3130297  PMID: 21474823
obesity; hsCRP; high sensitivity C-reactive protein; subclinical atherosclerosis; coronary artery calcium; carotid intima-media thickness
20.  Association between hsCRP≥2, Coronary Artery Calcium, and Cardiovascular Events – Implications for the JUPITER Population: Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) 
Lancet  2011;378(9792):684-692.
The JUPITER trial demonstrated that some patients with LDL-C <130 mg/dL and hsCRP ≥2 mg/L benefit from rosuvastatin, although absolute event rates were low. We sought to determine whether coronary artery calcium (CAC) may further risk stratify a JUPITER-eligible population, and to compare hsCRP vs. CAC for risk prediction in otherwise JUPITER-eligible participants.
A total of 950 MESA participants met all JUPITER entry criteria. We compared CHD and CVD event rates and multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios after stratifying by both presence and burden of CAC (0, 1–100, >100). We also calculated 5-year number needed to treat (NNT5) by applying the benefit observed in JUPITER to the observed event rates within each CAC strata.
Median follow-up was 5.8 years. Approximately 47% of the MESA JUPITER population had CAC=0, and CHD event rates in this group were <1 per 1000 person-years. Over 2/3 of all CHD events occurred in the 25% of participants with CAC >100 (20.2 per 1000 person-years). For CHD, the predicted NNT5 for CAC 0, 1–100, and >100 was 549, 94, and 24 respectively. For CVD, the NNT5 was 124, 54, and 19. Amongst otherwise JUPITER-eligible patients, presence of CAC was associated with 4.3-fold increased CHD (95% CI 2.0 – 9.3) and 2.6-fold increased CVD (95% CI 1.5–4.5), while hsCRP was not associated with either CHD or CVD after multivariable adjustment.
Within MESA, approximately half of JUPITER-eligible participants had CAC=0 and experienced an extremely low 6-year event rate. Nearly all events occurred in patients with CAC. CAC appears to further risk stratify JUPITER-eligible patients and may be used to target a subgroup of patients expected to derive the most, and the least, absolute benefit from statin treatment. Focusing treatment on the subset of individuals with measurable atherosclerosis may represent a more appropriate allocation of resources.
PMCID: PMC3173039  PMID: 21856482
hsCRP; CAC; and Clinical Events
21.  Is Diabetic Retinopathy Related to Subclinical Cardiovascular Disease? 
Ophthalmology  2010;118(5):860-865.
Persons with diabetic retinopathy (DR) have an increased risk of clinical cardiovascular events. Our study aimed to determine whether DR is associated with a range of measures of subclinical cardiovascular disease (CVD) in persons without clinical CVD.
Population-based, cross-sectional epidemiologic study
Nine hundred and twenty seven persons with diabetes without clinical CVD in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.
DR was ascertained from retinal photographs according to modification of the Airlie House Classification system. Vision threatening DR (VTDR) was defined as severe non-proliferative DR, proliferative DR or clinically significant macular edema. Subclinical CVD measures were assessed and defined as follows: high coronary artery calcium (CAC) score, defined as CAC score≥400; low ankle-brachial index (ABI), defined as ABI<0.9; high ABI, defined as ABI≥1.4; high carotid intima-media thickness (IMT), defined as highest 25% of IMT; and carotid stenosis, defined as >25% stenosis or presence of carotid plaque.
Associations between DR and subclinical CVD measures.
The prevalence of DR and VTDR in this sample was 30.0% and 7.2%, respectively. VTDR was associated with a high CAC score (odds ratio [OR] 2.33, 95% condifence interval [CI] 1.15–4.73), low ABI (OR 2.54; 95%CI, 1.08–5.99) and high ABI (OR 12.6, 95% CI, 1.14, 140.6), after adjusting for risk factors including hemoglobin A1c level and duration of diabetes. The association between VTDR and high CAC score remained significant after further adjustment for hypoglycemic, anti-hypertensive and cholesterol-lowering medications. DR was not significantly associated with measures of carotid artery disease.
In persons with diabetes without a history of clinical CVD, the presence of advanced stage of DR is associated with subclinical coronary artery disease. These findings emphasize the need to be careful about the use of anti-vascular endothelial growth factor for the treatment of DR.
PMCID: PMC3087839  PMID: 21168222
22.  Comparison of Novel Risk Markers for Improvement in Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Intermediate Risk Individuals. The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis 
Risk markers including coronary artery calcium (CAC), carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT), ankle-brachial Index (ABI), brachial flow-mediated dilation (FMD), high sensitivity C -reactive protein (hs-CRP) and family history (FH) of coronary heart disease (CHD) have been reported to improve on the Framingham risk score (FRS) for prediction of CHD. However, there are no direct comparisons of these markers for risk prediction in a single cohort.
We compared improvement in prediction of incident CHD/cardiovascular disease (CVD) of these 6 risk markers within intermediate risk participants (5 % < FRS < 20%) in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).
Design, Setting and Participants
Of 6814 MESA participants from 6 US field centers, 1330 were intermediate risk, without diabetes mellitus, and had complete data on all 6 markers. Recruitment spanned July 2000 to September 2002; follow-up extended through May 2011. Probability- weighted Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR). Area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) and net reclassification improvement (NRI) were used to compare incremental contributions of each marker when added to the FRS + race/ethnicity.
Main Outcome Measures
Incident CHD defined as MI, angina followed by revascularization, resuscitated cardiac arrest or CHD death. Incident CVD additionally included stroke or CVD death.
After median follow-up of 7.6 years (IQR 7.3 – 7.8 years), 94 CHD and 123 CVD events occurred. CAC, ABI, hs-CRP and FH were independently associated with incident CHD in multivariable analyses [HR (95%CI: 2.60(1.94-3.50), 0.79(0.66-0.95), 1.28(1.00-1.64) and 2.18(1.38-3.42) respectively]. CIMT and FMD were not associated with incident CHD in multivariable analyses [HR (95%CI) 1.17(0.95- 1.45) and 0.95(0.78 −1.14) respectively]. Although the addition of the markers individually to the FRS +race/ethnicity improved the AUC, CAC afforded the highest increment (0.623 vs. 0.784) while FMD afforded the least [0.623 vs. 0.639]. For incident CHD, the NRI with CAC was 0.659, FMD 0.024, ABI 0.036, CIMT 0.102, FH 0.160 and hs-CRP 0.079. Similar results were obtained for incident CVD.
CAC, ABI, hs-CRP and FH are independent predictors of incident CHD/CVD in intermediate risk individuals. CAC provides superior discrimination and risk reclassification compared with other risk markers.
PMCID: PMC4141475  PMID: 22910756
23.  Associations of SNPs in ADIPOQ and subclinical cardiovascular disease in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) 
Obesity (Silver Spring, Md.)  2010;19(4):840-847.
Circulating adiponectin has been associated with both clinical and subclinical cardiovascular disease (CVD). Variants of the adiponectin gene (ADIPOQ) are associated with clinical CVD, but little is known about associations with subclinical CVD. We studied the association of 11 ADIPOQ SNPs with common and internal carotid intima media thickness (cIMT), presence of coronary artery calcification (CAC), and CAC scores (in those with CAC) in 2847 participants in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). Participants were Caucasian (n=712), African-American (n=712), Chinese (n=718), and Hispanic (n=705). All models were adjusted for age, sex, and field site, and stratified by race/ethnic group. African-Americans with genotypes AG/GG of rs2241767 had 36% greater (95% CI (16%, 59%), p=0.0001) CAC prevalence; they also had a larger common cIMT (p=0.0043). Also in African-Americans, genotypes AG/AA of rs1063537 were associated with a 35% (95% CI (14%, 59%), p=0.0005) greater CAC prevalence. Hispanics with the AA genotype of rs11711353 had a 37% (95% CI (14%, 66%), p=0.0011), greater CAC prevalence compared to those with the GG genotype. Additional adjustment for ancestry in African-American and Hispanic participants did not change the results. No single SNP was associated with subclinical CVD phenotypes in Chinese or Caucasian participants. There appears to be an association between ADIPOQ SNPs and subclinical CVD in African-American and Hispanics. Replication as well as assessment of other ADIPOQ SNPs appears warranted.
PMCID: PMC3510267  PMID: 20930713
24.  Impact of Subclinical Atherosclerosis on Cardiovascular Disease Events in Individuals With Metabolic Syndrome and Diabetes 
Diabetes Care  2011;34(10):2285-2290.
While metabolic syndrome (MetS) and diabetes confer greater cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, recent evidence suggests that individuals with these conditions have a wide range of risk. We evaluated whether screening for coronary artery calcium (CAC) and carotid intimal-medial thickness (CIMT) can improve CVD risk stratification over traditional risk factors (RFs) in people with MetS and diabetes.
We assessed CAC and CIMT in 6,603 people aged 45–84 years in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). Cox regression examined the association of CAC and CIMT with coronary heart disease (CHD) and CVD over 6.4 years in MetS and diabetes.
Of the subjects, 1,686 (25%) had MetS but no diabetes and 881 (13%) had diabetes. Annual CHD event rates were 1.0% among MetS and 1.5% for diabetes. Ethnicity and RF-adjusted hazard ratios for CHD for CAC 1–99 to ≥400 vs. 0 in subjects with neither MetS nor diabetes ranged from 2.6 to 9.5; in those with MetS, they ranged from 3.9 to 11.9; and in those with diabetes, they ranged from 2.9 to 6.2 (all P < 0.05 to P < 0.001). Findings were similar for CVD. CAC increased the C-statistic for events (P < 0.001) over RFs and CIMT in each group while CIMT added negligibly to prediction over RFs.
Individuals with MetS or diabetes have low risks for CHD when CAC or CIMT is not increased. Prediction of CHD and CVD events is improved by CAC more than by CIMT. Screening for CAC or CIMT can stratify risk in people with MetS and diabetes and support the latest recommendations regarding CAC screening in those with diabetes.
PMCID: PMC3177707  PMID: 21844289
25.  A Functionally Significant Polymorphism in ID3 Is Associated with Human Coronary Pathology 
PLoS ONE  2014;9(3):e90222.
We previously identified association between the ID3 SNP rs11574 and carotid intima-media thickness in the Diabetes Heart Study, a predominantly White diabetic population. The nonsynonymous SNP rs11574 results in an amino acid substitution in the C-terminal region of ID3, attenuating the dominant negative function of ID3 as an inhibitor of basic HLH factor E12-mediated transcription. In the current investigation, we characterize the association between the functionally significant polymorphism in ID3, rs11574, with human coronary pathology.
Methods and Results
The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) is a longitudinal study of subclinical cardiovascular disease, including non-Hispanic White (n = 2,588), African American (n = 2,560) and Hispanic (n = 2,130) participants with data on coronary artery calcium (CAC). The Coronary Assessment in Virginia cohort (CAVA) included 71 patients aged 30–80 years, undergoing a medically necessary cardiac catheterization and intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) at the University of Virginia. ID3 SNP rs11574 risk allele was associated with the presence of CAC in MESA Whites (P = 0.017). In addition, the risk allele was associated with greater atheroma burden and stenosis in the CAVA cohort (P = 0.003, P = 0.04 respectively). The risk allele remained predictive of atheroma burden in multivariate analysis (Model 1: covariates age, gender, and LDL, regression coefficient = 9.578, SE = 3.657, p = 0.0110; Model 2: covariates Model 1, presence of hypertension, presence of diabetes, regression coefficient = 8.389, SE = 4.788, p = 0.0163).
We present additional cohorts that demonstrate association of ID3 SNP rs11574 directly with human coronary artery pathology as measured by CAC and IVUS: one a multiethnic, relatively healthy population with low levels of diabetes and the second a predominantly White population with a higher incidence of T2DM referred for cardiac catheterization.
PMCID: PMC3946163  PMID: 24603695

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