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1.  Challenges and strategies for determining workforce requirements in plastic surgery 
Accurate projections of the future plastic surgeon workforce are essential to provide a high standard of care and to properly allocate scarce health care resources. This is not a straightforward task. Longstanding concerns over physician surpluses have been replaced by fears of physician shortages.
A review of previous efforts to predict future plastic surgeon workforce requirements highlights the challenges associated with deriving a solution. Physician workforce is dependent on numerous factors, including both physician-supply factors, such as practice patterns and age, and population-demand factors including disease burden and socioeconomic factors. Factors unique to plastic surgery, such as overlap with other specialties and performance of uninsured services, must also be considered. Previous strategies from other areas of medicine are described with associated strengths and weaknesses. These strategies include needs- and demand-based approaches, economic analysis and benchmarking. Finally, the need for appropriate outcomes from which to assess adequacy of physician supply is discussed.
Projections of future plastic surgeon workforce requirements must not only consider a multitude of physician supply and population demand factors, but also factors unique to plastic surgery. Future strategies to predict workforce requirements should balance the strengths and weaknesses of each approach with the data and outcomes available in plastic surgery.
PMCID: PMC3513254  PMID: 24294019
Methodology; Number of plastic surgeons; Physician workforce; Projection
2.  Stakeholder perceptions of a nurse led walk-in centre 
As many countries face primary care medical workforce shortages and find it difficult to provide timely and affordable care they seek to find new ways of delivering first point of contact health care through developing new service models. In common with other areas of rural and regional Australia, the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) is currently experiencing a general practitioner (GP) workforce shortage which impacts significantly on the ability of patients to access GP led primary care services. The introduction of a nurse led primary care Walk-in Centre in the ACT aimed to fulfill an unmet health care need in the community and meet projected demand for health care services as well as relieve pressure on the hospital system. Stakeholders have the potential to influence health service planning and policy, to advise on the potential of services to meet population health needs and to assess how acceptable health service innovation is to key stakeholder groups. This study aimed to ascertain the views of key stakeholders about the Walk-in Centre.
Stakeholders were purposively selected through the identification of individuals and organisations which had organisational or professional contact with the Walk-in Centre. Semi structured interviews around key themes were conducted with seventeen stakeholders.
Stakeholders were generally supportive of the Walk-in Centre but identified key areas which they considered needed to be addressed. These included the service's systems, full utilisation of the nurse practitioner role and adequate education and training. It was also suggested that a doctor could be available to the Centre as a source of referral for patients who fall outside the nurses' scope of practice. The location of the Centre was seen to impact on patient flows to the Emergency Department.
Nurse led Walk-in Centres are one response to addressing primary health care medical workforce shortages. Whilst some stakeholders have reservations about the model others are supportive and see the potential the model has to provide accessible primary health care. Any further developments of nurse-led Walk-in Centres need to take into account the views of key stakeholders so as to ensure that the model is acceptable and sustainable.
PMCID: PMC3529673  PMID: 23126431
3.  State's Labor Department Working to Increase Hawai‘i's Primary Care Workforce 20% by 2020 
Hawai‘i lacks the number of skilled professionals needed to meet current and future healthcare demands. In order to meet the growing needs of Hawai‘i's residents, the Workforce Development Council, a state agency attached to the State Department of Labor and Industrial Relations, is looking to expand the primary care workforce 20% by the year 2020. Using funds from a Healthcare Workforce Planning grant, the state formed several Healthcare Industry Skill Panels, a workforce development best practice from the State of Washington, to address the gap in healthcare services and healthcare workforce opportunities for Hawai‘i residents. Over 150 stakeholders—from employers, education, the public workforce system, economic development and labor—contributed their time and expertise to identify current workforce issues and develop action-oriented strategies to close industry skill gaps. So far these Skill Panels have developed a Critical Care Nursing Course Curriculum, a Workforce Readiness Curriculum and Certification pilot project, and a group to address specific barriers that are impeding Certified Nurse Aides (CNA). Upcoming initiatives include the distribution of a comprehensive statewide healthcare workforce development plan entitled Hawai‘i's Healthcare Workforce 20/20 Plan & Report: Addendum to the Comprehensive State Plan for Workforce Development 2009–2014, and the creation of, a website to both recruit and support individuals interested in pursuing careers in the healthcare industry.
PMCID: PMC3347730  PMID: 22737645
4.  Study protocol: Evaluating the impact of a rural Australian primary health care service on rural health 
Rural communities throughout Australia are experiencing demographic ageing, increasing burden of chronic diseases, and de-population. Many are struggling to maintain viable health care services due to lack of infrastructure and workforce shortages. Hence, they face significant health disadvantages compared with urban regions. Primary health care yields the best health outcomes in situations characterised by limited resources. However, few rigorous longitudinal evaluations have been conducted to systematise them; assess their transferability; or assess sustainability amidst dynamic health policy environments. This paper describes the study protocol of a comprehensive longitudinal evaluation of a successful primary health care service in a small rural Australian community to assess its performance, sustainability, and responsiveness to changing community needs and health system requirements.
The evaluation framework aims to examine the health service over a six-year period in terms of: (a) Structural domains (health service performance; sustainability; and quality of care); (b) Process domains (health service utilisation and satisfaction); and (c) Outcome domains (health behaviours, health outcomes and community viability). Significant international research guided the development of unambiguous reliable indicators for each domain that can be routinely and unobtrusively collected. Data are to be collected and analysed for trends from a range of sources: audits, community surveys, interviews and focus group discussions.
This iterative evaluation framework and methodology aims to ensure the ongoing monitoring of service activity and health outcomes that allows researchers, providers and administrators to assess the extent to which health service objectives are met; the factors that helped or hindered achievements; what worked or did not work well and why; what aspects of the service could be improved and how; what benefits have been realised and for whom; the level of community satisfaction with the service; and the impact of a health service on community viability. While the need to reduce the rural-urban health service disparity in Australia is pressing, the evidence regarding how to move forward is inadequate. This comprehensive evaluation will add significant new knowledge regarding the characteristics associated with a sustainable rural primary health care service.
PMCID: PMC3056757  PMID: 21356123
5.  The impact of generational change and retirement on psychiatry to 2025 
Australia is currently experiencing widespread shortages of psychiatrists. The changing nature of the workforce and increasing demand mean that these shortages are unlikely to ease. This study aims to identify demographic change and retirement patterns of the Australian psychiatry workforce from 1995 to 2003, and the implications of those changes for future workforce planning.
Data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) Medical Labour Force Survey from 1995 to 2003 is used to examine ageing of the psychiatry workforce and attrition of psychiatrists aged 50 years and over. Future attrition from the workforce is projected to 2025.
Sixty two percent of psychiatrists practicing in the year 2000 are predicted to have retired by 2025. Most psychiatrists continue to work until late in life, with only 18 per cent retiring before age 65. The psychiatry workforce aged significantly between 1995 and 2003 (p < 0.001), with men older than women in both years. A reduction in hours worked by psychiatrists reflects both the increasing proportion of females and the older members of the profession reducing their hours in preparation for retirement.
The impact of ageing of the workforce may be more immediate for psychiatry than for some other health professions. With the growing proportion of females and their typically lower workforce participation, more than one younger psychiatrist will be required to replace each of the mostly male retirees.
PMCID: PMC2020482  PMID: 17767723
6.  How evidence-based workforce planning in Australia is informing policy development in the retention and distribution of the health workforce 
Australia’s health workforce is facing significant challenges now and into the future. Health Workforce Australia (HWA) was established by the Council of Australian Governments as the national agency to progress health workforce reform to address the challenges of providing a skilled, innovative and flexible health workforce in Australia. HWA developed Australia’s first major, long-term national workforce projections for doctors, nurses and midwives over a planning horizon to 2025 (called Health Workforce 2025; HW 2025), which provided a national platform for developing policies to help ensure Australia’s health workforce meets the community’s needs.
A review of existing workforce planning methodologies, in concert with the project brief and an examination of data availability, identified that the best fit-for-purpose workforce planning methodology was the stock and flow model for estimating workforce supply and the utilisation method for estimating workforce demand. Scenario modelling was conducted to explore the implications of possible alternative futures, and to demonstrate the sensitivity of the model to various input parameters. Extensive consultation was conducted to test the methodology, data and assumptions used, and also influenced the scenarios selected for modelling. Additionally, a number of other key principles were adopted in developing HW 2025 to ensure the workforce projections were robust and able to be applied nationally.
The findings from HW 2025 highlighted that a ‘business as usual’ approach to Australia’s health workforce is not sustainable over the next 10 years, with a need for co-ordinated, long-term reforms by government, professions and the higher education and training sector for a sustainable and affordable health workforce. The main policy levers identified to achieve change were innovation and reform, immigration, training capacity and efficiency and workforce distribution.
While HW 2025 has provided a national platform for health workforce policy development, it is not a one-off project. It is an ongoing process where HWA will continue to develop and improve health workforce projections incorporating data and methodology improvements to support incremental health workforce changes.
PMCID: PMC3922608  PMID: 24490586
Workforce planning; Workforce projections
7.  Development of an interactive model for planning the care workforce for Alberta: case study 
In common with other jurisdictions, Alberta faces challenges in ensuring a balance in health worker supply and demand. As the provider organization with province-wide responsibility, Alberta Health Services needed to develop a forecasting tool to inform its position on key workforce parameters, in the first instance focused on modeling the situation for Registered Nurses, Licensed Practical Nurses and health care aides. This case study describes the development of the model, highlighting the choices involved in model development.
Case description
A workforce planning model was developed to test the effect of different assumptions (for instance about vacancy rates or retirement) and different policy choices (for example about the size of intakes into universities and colleges, different composition of the workforce). This case study describes the choices involved in designing the model. The workforce planning model was used as part of a consultation process and to develop six scenarios (based on different policy choices).
Discussion and evaluation
The model outputs highlighted the problems with continuation of current workforce strategies and the impact of key policy choices on workforce parameters.
Models which allow for transparency of the underlying assumptions, and the ability to assess the sensitivity of assumptions and the impact of policy choices are required for effective workforce planning.
PMCID: PMC3543178  PMID: 22905726
8.  Interprofessional faculty development: integration of oral health into the geriatric diabetes curriculum, from theory to practice 
Health care workforce shortages and an increase demand for health care services by an older demographic challenged by oral–systemic conditions are being recognized across health care systems. Demands are placed on health care professionals to render coordinated delivery of services. Management of oral–systemic conditions requires a trained health care workforce to render interprofessional patient-centered and coordinated delivery of health care services. The purpose of this investigation was to evaluate the effectiveness of an interprofessional health care faculty training program.
A statewide comprehensive type 2 diabetes training program was developed and offered to multidisciplinary health care faculty using innovative educational methods. Video-recorded clinically simulated patient encounters concentrated on the oral–systemic interactions between type 2 diabetes and comorbidities. Post-encounter instructors facilitated debriefing focused on preconceptions, self-assessment, and peer discussions, to develop a joint interprofessional care plan. Furthermore, the health care faculty explored nonhierarchical opportunities to bridge common health care themes and concepts, as well as opportunities to translate information into classroom instruction and patient care.
Thirty-six health care faculty from six disciplines completed the pre-research and post-research assessment survey to evaluate attitudes, knowledge, and perceptions following the interprofessional health care faculty training program. Post-training interprofessional team building knowledge improved significantly. The health care faculty post-training attitude scores improved significantly, with heightened awareness of the unique oral–systemic care needs of older adults with type 2 diabetes, supporting an interprofessional team approach to care management. In addition, the health care faculty viewed communication across disciplines as being essential and interprofessional training as being vital to the core curriculum of each discipline. Significant improvement occurred in the perception survey items for team accountability and use of uniform terminology to bridge communication gaps.
Attitude, knowledge, and perceptions of health care faculty regarding interprofessional team building and the team approach to management of the oral–systemic manifestations of chronic disease in older adults was improved. Uniform language to promote communication across health professionals, care settings, and caregivers/patients, was noted. Interprofessional team building/care planning should be integrated in core curricula.
PMCID: PMC3862736  PMID: 24363558
team building; patient-centered care; oral–systemic; older adults
9.  The Australian preventive health agenda: what will this mean for workforce development? 
The formation of the National Health and Hospitals Reform Commission (NHHRC) and the National Preventative Task Force in 2008, demonstrate a renewed Australian Government commitment to health reform. The re-focus on prevention, bringing it to the centre of health care has significant implications for health service delivery in the primary health care setting, supportive organisational structures and continuing professional development for the existing clinical and public health workforce. It is an opportune time, therefore, to consider new approaches to workforce development aligned to health policy reform. Regardless of the actual recommendations from the NHHRC in June 2009, there will be an emphasis on performance improvements which are accountable and aligned to new preventive health policy, organisational priorites and anticipated improved health outcomes.
To achieve this objective there will be a need for the existing population health workforce, primary health care and non-government sectors to increase their knowledge and understanding of prevention, promotion and protection theory and practice within new organisational frameworks and linked to the community. This shift needs to be part of a national health services research agenda, infrastructure and funding which is supportive of quality continuing professional development.
This paper discusses policy and practice issues related to workforce development as part of an integrated response to the preventive agenda.
PMCID: PMC2696455  PMID: 19463159
10.  Use of information and communication technologies to support effective work practice innovation in the health sector: a multi-site study 
Widespread adoption of information and communication technologies (ICT) is a key strategy to meet the challenges facing health systems internationally of increasing demands, rising costs, limited resources and workforce shortages. Despite the rapid increase in ICT investment, uptake and acceptance has been slow and the benefits fewer than expected. Absent from the research literature has been a multi-site investigation of how ICT can support and drive innovative work practice. This Australian-based project will assess the factors that allow health service organisations to harness ICT, and the extent to which such systems drive the creation of new sustainable models of service delivery which increase capacity and provide rapid, safe, effective, affordable and sustainable health care.
A multi-method approach will measure current ICT impact on workforce practices and develop and test new models of ICT use which support innovations in work practice. The research will focus on three large-scale commercial ICT systems being adopted in Australia and other countries: computerised ordering systems, ambulatory electronic medical record systems, and emergency medicine information systems. We will measure and analyse each system's role in supporting five key attributes of work practice innovation: changes in professionals' roles and responsibilities; integration of best practice into routine care; safe care practices; team-based care delivery; and active involvement of consumers in care.
A socio-technical approach to the use of ICT will be adopted to examine and interpret the workforce and organisational complexities of the health sector. The project will also focus on ICT as a potentially disruptive innovation that challenges the way in which health care is delivered and consequently leads some health professionals to view it as a threat to traditional roles and responsibilities and a risk to existing models of care delivery. Such views have stifled debate as well as wider explorations of ICT's potential benefits, yet firm evidence of the effects of role changes on health service outcomes is limited. This project will provide important evidence about the role of ICT in supporting new models of care delivery across multiple healthcare organizations and about the ways in which innovative work practice change is diffused.
PMCID: PMC2776590  PMID: 19895703
11.  Public health workforce: challenges and policy issues 
This paper reviews the challenges facing the public health workforce in developing countries and the main policy issues that must be addressed in order to strengthen the public health workforce. The public health workforce is diverse and includes all those whose prime responsibility is the provision of core public health activities, irrespective of their organizational base. Although the public health workforce is central to the performance of health systems, very little is known about its composition, training or performance. The key policy question is: Should governments invest more in building and supporting the public health workforce and infrastructure to ensure the more effective functioning of health systems? Other questions concern: the nature of the public health workforce, including its size, composition, skills, training needs, current functions and performance; the appropriate roles of the workforce; and how the workforce can be strengthened to support new approaches to priority health problems.
The available evidence to shed light on these policy issues is limited. The World Health Organization is supporting the development of evidence to inform discussion on the best approaches to strengthening public health capacity in developing countries. WHO's priorities are to build an evidence base on the size and structure of the public health workforce, beginning with ongoing data collection activities, and to map the current public health training programmes in developing countries and in Central and Eastern Europe. Other steps will include developing a consensus on the desired functions and activities of the public health workforce and developing a framework and methods for assisting countries to assess and enhance the performance of public health training institutions and of the public health workforce.
PMCID: PMC179882  PMID: 12904251
12.  Recruitment and retention of general practitioners in the UK: what are the problems and solutions? 
Recruitment and retention of general practitioners (GPs) has become an issue of major concern in recent years. However, much of the evidence is anecdotal and some commentators continue to question the scale of workforce problems. Hence, there is a need to establish a clear picture of those instabilities (i.e. imbalances between demand and supply) that do exist in the GP labour market in the UK. Based on a review of the published literature, we identify problems that stem from: (i) the changing social composition of the workforce and the fact that a large proportion of qualified GPs are significantly underutilized within traditional career structures; and (ii) the considerable differences in the ability of local areas to match labour demand and supply. We argue that one way to address these problems would be to encourage greater flexibility in a number of areas highlighted in the literature: (i) time commitment across the working day and week; (ii) long-term career paths; (iii) training and education; and (iv) remuneration and contract conditions. Overall, although the evidence suggests that the predicted 'crisis' has not yet occurred in the GP labour market as a whole, there is no room for lack of imagination in planning terms. Workforce planners continue to emphasize national changes to the medical school intake as the means to balance labour demand and supply between the specialities; however, better retention and deployment of existing GP labour would arguably produce more effective supply-side solutions. In this context, current policy and practice developments (e.g. Primary Care Groups and Primary Care Act Pilot Sites) offer a unique learning base upon which to move forward.
PMCID: PMC1313539  PMID: 10885092
13.  Geographic Maldistribution of Primary Care for Children 
Pediatrics  2010;127(1):19-27.
This study examines growth in the primary care physician workforce for children and examines the geographic distribution of the workforce.
National data were used to calculate the local per-capita supply of clinically active general pediatricians and family physicians, measured at the level of primary care service areas.
Between 1996 and 2006, the general pediatrician and family physician workforces expanded by 51% and 35%, respectively, whereas the child population increased by only 9%. The 2006 per-capita supply varied by >600% across local primary care markets. Nearly 15 million children (20% of the US child population) lived in local markets with <710 children per child physician (average of 141 child physicians per 100 000 children), whereas another 15 million lived in areas with >4400 children per child physician (average of 22 child physicians per 100 000 children). In addition, almost 1 million children lived in areas with no local child physician. Nearly all 50 states had evidence of similar extremes of physician maldistribution.
Undirected growth of the aggregate child physician workforce has resulted in profound maldistribution of physician resources. Accountability for public funding of physician training should include efforts to develop, to use, and to evaluate policies aimed at reducing disparities in geographic access to primary care physicians for children.
PMCID: PMC3010089  PMID: 21172992
physician workforce; primary care; access to care; health policy
14.  Analysis of the Literature Pertaining to the Education of Public Health Professionals 
A well-educated workforce is essential to the infrastructure of a public health system (1). At a time when global focus on public health is increasing, a severe shortage of public health professionals is projected (2). A strong educational framework is thus imperative to ensure the capacity and capability of the worldwide public health workforce for the future. The education of those who work in public health is spread across disciplines, subject-specific training programs and types of academic institutions. In the 2011 report on the Health Professionals for a New Century, Frenk and Chen comment that, compared to medicine and nursing, public health has done the least to examine what and how it teaches (3). This does not bode well for meeting the demands of the public health workforce for the future. The purpose of the study reported here is to analyze the state of pedagogy pertaining to the education of the public health workforce as evidenced by published literature. The focus is on “professionals,” defined as those who have formal education, are self-governing, and can work independently.
PMCID: PMC3859983  PMID: 24350216
education of the public health workforce; public health workforce pedagogy; literature on public health pedagogy; literature on education of public health professionals; public health professionals’ education
15.  Beyond 50. challenges at work for older nurses and allied health workers in rural Australia: a thematic analysis of focus group discussions 
The health workforce in Australia is ageing, particularly in rural areas, where this change will have the most immediate implications for health care delivery and workforce needs. In rural areas, the sustainability of health services will be dependent upon nurses and allied health workers being willing to work beyond middle age, yet the particular challenges for older health workers in rural Australia are not well known. The purpose of this research was to identify aspects of work that have become more difficult for rural health workers as they have become older; and the age-related changes and exacerbating factors that contribute to these difficulties. Findings will support efforts to make workplaces more 'user-friendly' for older health workers.
Nurses and allied health workers aged 50 years and over were invited to attend one of six local workshops held in the Hunter New England region of NSW, Australia. This qualitative action research project used a focus group methodology and thematic content analysis to identify and interpret issues arising from workshop discussions.
Eighty older health workers from a range of disciplines attended the workshops. Tasks and aspects of work that have become more difficult for older health workers in hospital settings, include reading labels and administering medications; hearing patients and colleagues; manual handling; particular movements and postures; shift work; delivery of babies; patient exercises and suturing. In community settings, difficulties relate to vehicle use and home visiting. Significant issues across settings include ongoing education, work with computers and general fatigue. Wider personal challenges include coping with change, balancing work-life commitments, dealing with attachments and meeting goals and expectations. Work and age-related factors that exacerbate difficulties include vision and hearing deficits, increasing tiredness, more complex professional roles and a sense of not being valued in the context of greater perceived workload.
Older health workers are managing a range of issues, on top of the general challenges of rural practice. Personal health, wellbeing and other realms of life appear to take on increasing importance for older health workers when faced with increasing difficulties at work. Solutions need to address difficulties at personal, workplace and system wide levels.
PMCID: PMC3060112  PMID: 21338525
16.  Supporting work practices through telehealth: impact on nurses in peripheral regions 
In Canada, workforce shortages in the health care sector constrain the ability of the health care system to meet the needs of its population and of its health care professionals. This issue is of particular importance in peripheral regions of Quebec, where significant inequalities in workforce distribution between regions has lead to acute nursing shortages and increased workloads. Information and communication technologies (ICTs) are innovative solutions that can be used to develop strategies to optimise the use of available resources and to design new nursing work practices. However, current knowledge is still limited about the real impact of ICTs on nursing recruitment and retention. Our aim is to better understand how work practice reorganization, supported by ICTs, and particularly by telehealth, may influence professional, educational, and organizational factors relating to Quebec nurses, notably those working in peripheral regions.
First, we will conduct a descriptive study on the issue of nursing recruitment. Stratified sampling will be used to select approximately twenty innovative projects relating to the reorganization of work practices based upon ICTs. Semi-structured interviews with key informants will determine professional, educational, and organizational recruitment factors. The results will be used to create a questionnaire which, using a convenience sampling method, will be mailed to 600 third year students and recent graduates of two Quebec university nursing faculties. Descriptive, correlation, and hierarchical regression analyses will be performed to identify factors influencing nursing graduates' intentions to practice in peripheral regions. Secondly, we will conduct five case studies pertaining to the issue of nursing retention. Five ICT projects in semi-urban, rural, and isolated regions have been identified. Qualitative data will be collected through field observation and approximately fifty semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders.
Data from both parts of this research project will be jointly analysed using triangulation of researchers, theoretical approaches, methods, and results. Continuous exchanges with decision makers and periodic knowledge transfer activities are planned to facilitate the dissemination and utilization of research results in policies regarding the nursing recruitment and retention.
PMCID: PMC3040127  PMID: 21294882
17.  The U.S. Presidential Election and Health Care Workforce Policy 
The candidates for the 2008 presidential election have offered a range of proposals that could bring significant changes in health care. Although few are aimed directly at the nurse and physician workforce, nearly all of the proposals have the potential to affect the health care workforce. Furthermore, the success of the proposed initiatives is dependent on a robust nurse and physician workforce. The purpose of this article is to outline the current needs and challenges for the nurse and physician workforce and highlight how candidates’ proposals intersect with the adequacy of the health care workforce. Three general themes are highlighted for their implications on the physician and nurse workforce supply, including (a) expansion of health care coverage, (b) workforce investment, and (c) cost control and quality improvement.
PMCID: PMC2681088  PMID: 18436702
nursing; health care workforce issues; regulation of nursing practice; electoral/campaign activity; coverage/access
18.  Are 'Village Doctors' in Bangladesh a curse or a blessing? 
Bangladesh is one of the health workforce crisis countries in the world. In the face of an acute shortage of trained professionals, ensuring healthcare for a population of 150 million remains a major challenge for the nation. To understand the issues related to shortage of health workforce and healthcare provision, this paper investigates the role of various healthcare providers in provision of health services in Chakaria, a remote rural area in Bangladesh.
Data were collected through a survey carried out during February 2007 among 1,000 randomly selected households from 8 unions of Chakaria Upazila. Information on health-seeking behaviour was collected from 1 randomly chosen member of a household from those who fell sick during 14 days preceding the survey.
Around 44% of the villagers suffered from an illness during 14 days preceding the survey and of them 47% sought treatment for their ailment. 65% patients consulted Village Doctors and for 67% patients Village Doctors were the first line of care. Consultation with MBBS doctors was low at 14%. Given the morbidity level observed during the survey it was calculated that 250 physicians would be needed in Chakaria if the patients were to be attended by a qualified physician.
With the current shortage of physicians and level of production in the country it was asserted that it is very unlikely for Bangladesh to have adequate number of physicians in the near future. Thus, making use of existing healthcare providers, such as Village Doctors, could be considered a realistic option in dealing with the prevailing crisis.
PMCID: PMC2910021  PMID: 20602805
19.  Workforce analysis using data mining and linear regression to understand HIV/AIDS prevalence patterns 
The achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) depends on sufficient supply of health workforce in each country. Although country-level data support this contention, it has been difficult to evaluate health workforce supply and MDG outcomes at the country level. The purpose of the study was to examine the association between the health workforce, particularly the nursing workforce, and the achievement of the MDGs, taking into account other factors known to influence health status, such as socioeconomic indicators.
A merged data set that includes country-level MDG outcomes, workforce statistics, and general socioeconomic indicators was utilized for the present study. Data were obtained from the Global Human Resources for Health Atlas 2004, the WHO Statistical Information System (WHOSIS) 2000, UN Fund for Development and Population Assistance (UNFDPA) 2000, the International Council of Nurses "Nursing in the World", and the WHO/UNAIDS database.
The main factors in understanding HIV/AIDS prevalence rates are physician density followed by female literacy rates and nursing density in the country. Using general linear model approaches, increased physician and nurse density (number of physicians or nurses per population) was associated with lower adult HIV/AIDS prevalence rate, even when controlling for socioeconomic indicators.
Increased nurse and physician density are associated with improved health outcomes, suggesting that countries aiming to attain the MDGs related to HIV/AIDS would do well to invest in their health workforce. Implications for international and country level policy are discussed.
PMCID: PMC2270867  PMID: 18237419
20.  A Review of Programs That Targeted Environmental Determinants of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Health 
Objective: Effective interventions to improve population and individual health require environmental change as well as strategies that target individual behaviours and clinical factors. This is the basis of implementing an ecological approach to health programs and health promotion. For Aboriginal People and Torres Strait Islanders, colonisation has made the physical and social environment particularly detrimental for health. Methods and Results: We conducted a literature review to identify Aboriginal health interventions that targeted environmental determinants of health, identifying 21 different health programs. Program activities that targeted environmental determinants of health included: Caring for Country; changes to food supply and/or policy; infrastructure for physical activity; housing construction and maintenance; anti-smoking policies; increased workforce capacity; continuous quality improvement of clinical systems; petrol substitution; and income management. Targets were categorised according to Miller’s Living Systems Theory. Researchers using an Indigenous community based perspective more often identified interpersonal and community-level targets than were identified using a Western academic perspective. Conclusions: Although there are relatively few papers describing interventions that target environmental determinants of health, many of these addressed such determinants at multiple levels, consistent to some degree with an ecological approach. Interpretation of program targets sometimes differed between academic and community-based perspectives, and was limited by the type of data reported in the journal articles, highlighting the need for local Indigenous knowledge for accurate program evaluation. Implications: While an ecological approach to Indigenous health is increasingly evident in the health research literature, the design and evaluation of such programs requires a wide breadth of expertise, including local Indigenous knowledge.
PMCID: PMC3774452  PMID: 23939388
indigenous health; environmental determinants; evaluation
21.  Downsizing the physician workforce. 
Public Health Reports  1997;112(3):231-239.
OBJECTIVE: To estimate the need for downsizing the physician workforce in a changing health care environment. METHODS: First assuming that 1993 physician-to-population ratios would be maintained, the authors derived downsizing estimates by determining the annual growth in the supply of specialists necessary to maintain these ratios (sum of losses from death and retirement plus increase necessary to parallel population growth) and compared them with an estimate of the number of new physicians being produced (average annual number of board certificates issued between 1990 and 1994). Then, assuming that workforce needs would change in a system increasingly dominated by managed care, the authors estimated specialty-specific downsizing needs for a managed care dominated environment using data from several sources. RESULTS: To maintain the 1993 199.6 active physicians per 100,000 population ratio, 14,644 new physicians would be needed each year. Given that an average of 20,655 physicians were certified each year between 1990 and 1994, at least 6011 fewer new physicians were needed annually to maintain 1993 levels. To maintain the 132.2 ratio of active non-primary care physicians per 100,000 population, the system needed to produce 9698 non-primary care physicians per year, because an average of 14,527 new non-primary care physicians entered the workforce between 1990 and 1994, downsizing by 4829, or 33%, was needed. To maintain the 66.8 active primary care physicians per 100,000 population ratio, 4946 new primary care physicians were needed per year, since primary care averaged 6128 new certifications per year, a downsizing of 1182, or 20% was indicated. Only family practice, neurosurgery, otolaryngology, and urology did not require downsizing. Seventeen medical and hospital-based specialties, including 7 of 10 internal medicine subspecialties, needed downsizing by at least 40%. Less downsizing in general was needed in the surgical specialties and in psychiatry. A managed care dominated-system would call for greater downsizing in most of the non-primary care specialties. CONCLUSION: These data support the need for downsizing the nation's physician supply, especially in the internal medicine subspecialties and hospital support specialties and to a lesser extent among surgeons and primary care physicians.
PMCID: PMC1381998  PMID: 9160058
22.  Tracking the Workforce: The American Society of Clinical Oncology Workforce Information System 
Reports generated by the workforce information system can be used by ASCO and others in the oncology community to advocate for needed health care system and policy changes to help offset future workforce shortages.
In anticipation of oncologist workforce shortages projected as part of a 2007 study, the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) worked with a contractor to create a workforce information system (WIS) to assemble the latest available data on oncologist supply and cancer incidence and prevalence. ASCO plans to publish findings annually, reporting on new data and tracking trends over time.
The WIS report is composed of three sections: supply, new entrants, and cancer incidence and prevalence. Tabulations of the number of oncologists in the United States are derived mainly from the American Medical Association Physician Masterfile. Information on fellows and residents in the oncology workforce pipeline come from published sources such as Journal of the American Medical Association. Incidence and prevalence estimates are published by the American Cancer Society and National Cancer Institute.
The WIS reports a total of 13,084 oncologists working in the United States in 2011. Oncologists are defined as those physicians who designate hematology, hematology/oncology, or medical oncology as their specialty. The WIS compares the characteristics of these oncologists with those of all physicians and tracks emerging trends in the physician training pipeline.
Observing characteristics of the oncologist workforce over time allows ASCO to identify, prioritize, and evaluate its workforce initiatives. Accessible figures and reports generated by the WIS can be used by ASCO and others in the oncology community to advocate for needed health care system and policy changes to help offset future workforce shortages.
PMCID: PMC3545660  PMID: 23633965
23.  Implementing large-scale workforce change: learning from 55 pilot sites of allied health workforce redesign in Queensland, Australia 
Increasingly, health workforces are undergoing high-level ‘re-engineering’ to help them better meet the needs of the population, workforce and service delivery. Queensland Health implemented a large scale 5-year workforce redesign program across more than 13 health-care disciplines. This study synthesized the findings from this program to identify and codify mechanisms associated with successful workforce redesign to help inform other large workforce projects.
This study used Inductive Logic Reasoning (ILR), a process that uses logic models as the primary functional tool to develop theories of change, which are subsequently validated through proposition testing. Initial theories of change were developed from a systematic review of the literature and synthesized using a logic model. These theories of change were then developed into propositions and subsequently tested empirically against documentary, interview, and survey data from 55 projects in the workforce redesign program.
Three overarching principles were identified that optimized successful workforce redesign: (1) drivers for change need to be close to practice; (2) contexts need to be supportive both at the local levels and legislatively; and (3) mechanisms should include appropriate engagement, resources to facilitate change management, governance, and support structures. Attendance to these factors was uniformly associated with success of individual projects.
ILR is a transparent and reproducible method for developing and testing theories of workforce change. Despite the heterogeneity of projects, professions, and approaches used, a consistent set of overarching principles underpinned success of workforce change interventions. These concepts have been operationalized into a workforce change checklist.
PMCID: PMC3895764  PMID: 24330616
Role redesign; Workforce change; Implementation; Logic model; Proposition testing; Mixed methods; Workforce flexibility; Allied health; Inductive logic reasoning
24.  How do small rural primary health care services sustain themselves in a constantly changing health system environment? 
The ability to sustain comprehensive primary health care (PHC) services in the face of change is crucial to the health of rural communities. This paper illustrates how one service has proactively managed change to remain sustainable.
A 6-year longitudinal evaluation of the Elmore Primary Health Service (EPHS) located in rural Victoria, Australia, is currently underway, examining the performance, quality and sustainability of the service. Threats to, and enablers of, sustainability have been identified from evaluation data (audit of service indicators, community surveys, key stakeholder interviews and focus groups) and our own observations. These are mapped against an overarching framework of service sustainability requirements: workforce organisation and supply; funding; governance, management and leadership; service linkages; and infrastructure.
Four years into the evaluation, the evidence indicates EPHS has responded effectively to external and internal changes to ensure viability. The specific steps taken by the service to address risks and capitalise on opportunities are identified.
This evaluation highlights lessons for health service providers, policymakers, consumers and researchers about the importance of ongoing monitoring of sentinel service indicators; being attentive to changes that have an impact on sustainability; maintaining community involvement; and succession planning.
PMCID: PMC3342227  PMID: 22448876
25.  Medical School Hotline 
Hawaii Medical Journal  2010;69(6 Suppl 3):53-55.
The shortage of physicians and resultant lack of access to care particularly on the rural neighbor islands of Hawai‘i has been well described. A recent report in the December issue of this journal by Withy, et al. documents a current shortage of 45 physicians on the Big Island.1 Similar reports suggest that Hawai‘i's physician workforce lags 20% behind physician to population ratios in the continental US. It is projected that the aging population and the heavy burden of chronic disease will increase demand for health services by 40% by 2020 and even higher for specialties that focus on the care of elders. The existing physician shortage is heightened by the high percentage of doctors reaching retirement age. High business and living costs coupled with low reimbursement for health services makes it difficult to be competitive when recruiting physicians to Hawai‘i. Are there evidence based solutions to the state rural primary care workforce crisis? This article describes what is currently in place as well as new initiatives and a ten point plan to lay the framework for an improved state rural training pipeline.
PMCID: PMC3123154  PMID: 20540005

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