Cohort characteristics
There were 26 general population cohorts (n=1

861

052), seven high risk cohorts (n=151

494 plus subsample of the AKDN study with data on albumin-creatinine ratio (n=102

639)), and 13 chronic kidney disease cohorts (n=38

612) (table 1). Cohorts represented a range of geographical areas in Asia, Europe, North and South America, Asia, and Australasia; average mean follow-up was 5.8 years. General population cohorts had 89

595 deaths in 10

088

864 person years follow-up, and high risk and chronic kidney disease cohorts had 13

693 and 9019 deaths in 888

386 and 149

917 person years follow-up, respectively. Only a subset of cohorts had data on cardiovascular death (supplementary table on bmj.com). Overall, women comprised 54% of the general population cohorts, 50% of the high risk cohorts, and 47% of the chronic kidney disease cohorts. Mean age was lower in the general population cohorts (48 years) than the high risk cohorts (56 years) and chronic kidney disease cohorts (68 years), with no obvious sex differences. On average, women had levels of estimated glomerular filtration rate similar to those of men and a slightly lower prevalence of albuminuria (4% of women and 5% of men in general population). Fewer women had baseline hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, hypercholesterolemia, or were smokers (supplementary table).
Sex-specific associations of estimated glomerular filtration rate and albuminuria with all-cause mortality
In the combined general population and high risk cohorts, men had a 60% higher risk of all-cause mortality than women at an estimated glomerular filtration rate of 95 (adjusted hazard ratio 1.60 (95% confidence interval 1.52 to 1.69)) (fig 1A). The adjusted hazard ratio for all-cause mortality increased with lower levels of estimated glomerular filtration rate in both sexes, but the slope of the mortality risk relationship was steeper for women than men (fig 1B). For example, the risk became significant at a higher level of estimated glomerular filtration rate in women than men (52 v 44), and the relative risk was slightly higher in women at glomerular filtration rates of ≤56 (average relative hazard ratio per 15 decrease in estimated glomerular filtration rate comparing women to men, 1.04 (95% confidence interval 1.02 to 1.07), P for interaction <0.01). Compared with a reference estimated glomerular filtration rate of 95, the adjusted hazard ratio for all-cause mortality at glomerular filtration rate 45 was 1.32 (1.08 to 1.61) in women and 1.22 (1.00 to 1.48) in men (fig 2). Categorical associations for estimated glomerular filtration rate and mortality risk were similar: compared with a reference estimated glomerular filtration rate of 90–104, women with a rate <45 had a higher mortality risk than men (table 2, last column). The results for estimated glomerular filtration rate showed less heterogeneity among general population cohorts with urinary albumin-creatinine ratio data (I2=34.2%) and among high risk cohorts (I2=42.9%) than for the cohorts with urinary dipstick data (I2=84.1%).
| Table 2 Adjusted hazard ratios of sex-specific categorical analysis of associations of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria with all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality in general population cohorts and high risk cohorts (more ...) |
Similar patterns were observed in the estimates of all-cause mortality risk associated with albuminuria (fig 1, panels C and D). There was statistical evidence for interaction by sex, with a steeper increase in adjusted hazard ratio among women at urinary albumin-creatinine ratio >22 (fig 1D). Compared with a reference of albumin-creatinine ratio of 5, the adjusted hazard ratio for an albumin-creatinine ratio of 30 was 1.69 (1.54 to 1.84) in women and 1.43 (1.31 to 1.57) in men (P for interaction <0.01) (fig 3). In a categorical analysis combining cohorts measuring dipstick proteinuria, urinary albumin-creatinine ratio, and protein-creatinine ratio, the risk was present in both men and women in the high-normal category compared with normal category; however, women had a higher adjusted hazard ratio than men in each of the three clinical categories (high-normal, mild, and heavy) (table 2).
In the chronic kidney disease cohorts, men had a higher adjusted all-cause mortality risk than women (hazard ratio at estimated glomerular filtration rate of 50, 1.28 (1.18 to 1.40)). As with the general population cohorts, lower estimated glomerular filtration rate and higher albuminuria were associated with increased all-cause mortality in both sexes (supplementary fig 1, panels A and C, on bmj.com). Unlike the general population cohorts, however, the pointwise interaction terms were not significant at lower levels of estimated glomerular filtration rate (supplementary fig 1, B), nor was there a significant interaction in upper levels of urinary albumin-creatinine ratio (supplementary fig 1, D).
Sex-specific associations of estimated glomerular filtration rate and albuminuria with cardiovascular mortality
In the combined general population and high risk cohorts, men had higher cardiovascular mortality at all levels of estimated glomerular filtration rate (adjusted hazard ratio at estimated glomerular filtration rate of 95, 1.66 (1.48 to 1.86)) (see supplementary fig 2, A). Similarly, a higher cardiovascular risk was seen for men in the chronic kidney disease cohorts (supplementary fig 3, A). As with all-cause mortality, the cardiovascular mortality risk relationship was steeper for women than men. For example, reduction of estimated glomerular filtration rate by 15 was associated with a 6% higher cardiovascular risk among women when compared with same association among men (average relative hazard ratio of women v men, 1.06 (1.02 to 1.09)), with minimal heterogeneity between cohorts (I2=5.4%). In categorical analysis, an increase in cardiovascular risk was apparent for the estimated glomerular filtration rate category of 75–89 among women (hazard ratio 1.11 (1.02 to 1.21)) but not men (hazard ratio 1.02 (0.95 to 1.10)). Significant interactions (with higher hazard ratios among women compared with those among men) were found for all categories of estimated glomerular filtration rate between 15 and 60 (table 2).
Higher levels of urinary albumin-creatinine ratio were associated with increased cardiovascular risk in the combined general population and high risk cohorts (supplementary fig 2, C and D). The slope of the risk relationship was significantly steeper in women than in men. For example, a 10-fold increase of urinary albumin-creatinine ratio was associated with an 18% higher cardiovascular risk among women (average relative hazard ratio of women v men 1.18 (1.02 to 1.36)), with mild heterogeneity between cohorts (I2=32.3%). Categorical analysis showed similar associations (table 2).
While the overall pattern of association of estimated glomerular filtration rate with cardiovascular mortality was similar in the chronic kidney disease cohorts, this analysis was based on only 896 cardiovascular deaths (supplementary table on bmj.com). Confidence intervals were wide (supplementary fig 3, A), and there was no evidence of an interaction by sex (supplementary fig 3, B). The adjusted association of urinary albumin-creatinine ratio with cardiovascular mortality seemed flat for both men and women with wide confidence intervals (supplementary fig 3, C and D).
Sex-specific associations of estimated glomerular filtration rate and urinary albumin-creatinine ratio with end stage renal disease
Results are shown for the chronic kidney disease cohorts, which provided 71% (n=5960) of all observed instances of end stage renal disease (n=8409) (fig 4). Lower estimated glomerular filtration rate and higher urinary albumin-creatinine ratio were associated with increased risk of end stage renal disease in both sexes (fig 4A and 4C). The associations of estimated glomerular filtration rate with end stage renal disease overlapped for men and women, with limited evidence for interaction (P for interaction=0.27) (fig 4B). For urinary albumin-creatinine ratios between 15 and 350, women showed a slightly steeper risk relationship with end stage renal disease than men (fig 4D). For example, compared with a urinary albumin-creatinine ratio of 100, the hazard ratio associated with a ratio of 300 was 1.63 (1.33 to 1.99) in women and 1.33 (1.04 to 1.69) in men (P for interaction <0.01). There was heterogeneity in the association with end stage renal disease of estimated glomerular filtration rate (I2=70%) but not in that of the urinary albumin-creatinine ratio (I2=0%).
Results were similar in the general population and high risk cohorts. Lower estimated glomerular filtration rate and higher urinary albumin-creatinine ratio were associated with higher risk of end stage renal disease (supplementary fig 4, A and C, on bmj.com), with no evidence for sex-specific associations (supplementary fig 4, B and D).
Sensitivity analyses
There was no evidence for modification of the sex interaction by diabetes, age, obesity (data not shown), or when grouped into presumed premenopausal (<50 years old) and postmenopausal age (≥65 years old). In the general population and high risk cohorts, the associations of estimated glomerular filtration rate with all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality were more “U shaped” (with higher risk in levels of estimated glomerular filtration rate >95) in the older age group (≥65 years old) than in the younger age groups (supplementary figs 5 and 6). Nevertheless, in both age groups the estimated glomerular filtration rate cut-off at which estimated glomerular filtration rate reached statistical significance was higher amongst women than men. In meta-regression, including the two studies comprised solely of men did not materially change results.
When stratified by age, the point estimate of the risk relationship between urinary albumin-creatinine ratio and all-cause mortality implied a steeper association for women than men (age <65 years, relative hazard ratio 1.03 (0.98 to 1.08; age ≥65 years, relative hazard ratio 1.05 (1.02 to 1.09)), similar to the association of urinary albumin-creatinine ratio with cardiovascular mortality (<65 years, relative hazard ratio 1.09 (0.95 to 1.23); ≥65 years, relative hazard ratio 1.08 (1.00 to 1.14)).