Throughout a year of sampling along an elevation gradient spanning from low elevation sites situated outside of the West Nile plague focus, to higher elevation sites within the focus, we did not identify any significant differences in host abundance or diversity between sites within the defined plague focus compared with outside the focus. Likewise, numbers of host-seeking fleas, fleas recovered from hosts, and fleas per host were similar inside compared with outside of the focus, suggesting that pathogen transmission was not a simple function of contact rates between vectors and hosts. By contrast, we detected significant differences in abundance of particular flea species inside compared with outside the focus. However, it is notable that
X. cheopis, which is arguably the most efficient vector of
Y. pestis
[31], was the predominant species outside of the focus. Therefore, lack of an efficient vector outside the focus is an unlikely cause of the absence of
Y. pestis. Furthermore,
X. cheopis replaces
X. brasiliensis in the northern portion of this plague focus
[32], suggesting that these species fill a similar ecological niche. This observation challenges the notion that perhaps simple species replacement could explain the observed distribution in plague risk. Instead, our data implicate higher flea diversity as a significant factor in defining plague foci and may play an important role in
Y. pestis persistence or transmission from enzootic cycles to humans. This finding contrasts the dominant view held in the 20
th century and prior that host ecology drives the distribution and persistence of plague bacteria
[12],
[13],
[14]In general, it is believed that sufficient contact rates between hosts and vectors are required to maintain enzootic transmission of
Y. pestis and these contact rates are often dependent on host and flea abundances
[33]. With one exception (
M. minutoides), host abundance was similar between high and low elevation sites. It is unlikely that this difference accounts for significant differences in risk because these mice harbor extremely low numbers of fleas and the diversity of fleas hosted appears to be quite low. Similar abundances were noted both inside and outside the plague focus for at least three small mammal species (
R. rattus,
A. niloticus, and
Mastomys spp.) that are known to be susceptible to
Y. pestis and believed to be important in
Y. pestis transmission in this and other parts of Africa
[32],
[34],
[35],
[36],
[37],
[38],
[39]. Despite similar abundances of fleas inside and outside the focus, inside the focus, flea diversity was significantly higher than outside, which suggests that increased flea diversity may be important for the maintenance of
Y. pestis transmission cycles or may be important for transmission to humans. Having multiple species of fleas within a site that are capable of transmitting
Y. pestis (i.e.,
X. cheopis,
X. brasiliensis,
C. cabirus,
S. torvus, and
D. lypusus
[31],
[39],
[40],
[41],
[42],
[43],
[44]) and that infest hosts that are susceptible to plague infection could increase the likelihood of pathogen persistence during periods when the abundance of any particular host or flea species decreases below levels where persistence would be possible when only a single vector species was present
[45]. In other words, the presence of multiple vector species that will infest multiple susceptible host species creates a more connected host network. It is also possible that off-host adult populations of some flea species are able to survive infected for relatively long periods in burrows or nests, thus contributing to the persistence of plague in this region. Alternatively, it is possible that increased flea diversity creates greater connections between zoonotic hosts and humans. Long-term animal-based surveillance could reveal that
Y. pestis persists in zoonotic cycles at low elevations, most likely in the sylvatic areas outside of our sampling area, but lack of a bridging vector could result in enzootic maintenance of
Y. pestis but an absence of human plague cases.
Host and flea abundances have been shown to vary in response to temperature or rainfall
[17],
[45]. Indeed, although the measures used in our study are likely attenuated by microclimatic conditions, temperature and rainfall may play an important role in defining the distribution of certain vector species. We showed that flea diversity is strongly and positively associated with rainfall and negatively associated with temperature. It is possible that wetter and cooler conditions at the higher elevation sites are more conducive to the survival of certain flea species (i.e.
X. brasiliensis,
C. cabirus, and
D. lypusus). It is most likely that temperature and moisture affect the immature life stages, which exist primarily off of hosts and are presumably more sensitive to temperature and moisture fluctuations, than adults
[46],
[47].
Interestingly, temperature (often captured by elevation) and rainfall variables (often captured by greenness of vegetation indices) frequently emerge in spatial risk models as the best predictors of plague risk areas around the world
[5],
[6],
[7],
[9],
[11],
[48]. To some extent, temperature may be a predictor of plague foci because it influences the ability of fleas to survive, which may contribute to persistence. Temperature also influences the ability of
Y. pestis to form biofilm, which might enable fleas to maintain
Y. pestis infections
[49]. Biofilm production is regulated by the hemin storage locus gene complex, and biofilm production appears to be optimized at 20°–26°C
[2]. Interestingly, within our study sites, average maximum temperature for sites above 1300 m ranges from 25.3° to 26.9°C, whereas sites below 1300 m range from 28.3° to 32.7°C. However, it is important to note that adult fleas of some species typically remain on their mammalian hosts rather than spending most of their time in nests or burrows, so the temperature range experienced by these fleas is somewhat buffered from ambient temperatures
[42]. In addition, the temperatures reported represent the maximum temperatures observed for these sites, and these maxima are still below the temperature at which hms proteins begin to degrade, circa 37°C
[2].
Flea community composition, which also varies with elevation, could play a role in explaining the geographic distribution of plague bacteria. Plague foci are typically situated in tropical and sub-tropical latitudes and extend into warmer regions of temperate latitudes. However, within these broad limits,
Y. pestis is usually absent in deserts and large continuous forests, and foci are commonly restricted to highlands, but absent from extremely high elevations
[3]. Consistent with our observations at a very local scale that flea diversity is higher within higher elevation sites, several studies from other geographic regions that were reviewed recently
[50] have noted that flea species diversity and richness are higher at higher elevation sites, but depressed in very high elevations. However, these studies did not differentiate between plague endemic and non-endemic regions. Indeed, studies of host and vector diversity along transects that span from inside to outside of plague foci are uncommon. During examination of one instance where attempts were made to compare flea diversity inside and outside of a focus in Central Java
[51], we noted remarkable similarity to our findings in the West Nile region. In both regions,
Y. pestis is restricted to higher elevation sites (above 1,000 m in Central Java). Likewise, both primary and secondary hosts are present inside and outside the Central Java focus, but flea diversity is lower below 1000 m with the proposed vectors
Stivalius cognatus and
Neopsylla sondaica absent or rare below this elevation
[51].
The generality of our observation that flea diversity is higher in plague foci compared with outside requires further evaluation. In one instance, Laudisoit and others (2009) sought to compare host and flea communities in areas of Tanzania where plague was endemic to areas where plague was rare or absent. Similar to our study, they found no difference in host density between sites. However, in contrast to our study, they did not detect differences in any variables related to flea abundance or diversity. We argue that this may be because the sites evaluated encompassed sites where cases were rare, rather than absent, thus all sites were contained within the plague focus. Indeed, when looking at similarly defined sites within the West Nile focus (i.e., villages with or without a history of plague), host and flea diversity and abundance were similar between sites (Amatre et al. 2009).
As reviewed recently (Gage and Kosoy 2005, Eisen and Gage 2009), there has been extensive discussion, but few solid conclusions, on how Y. pestis is maintained during inter-epizootic periods. Many of the most common hypotheses focus on host abundance, host community composition, spatial configurations of host populations, or survival of Y. pestis outside of vertebrate hosts. Although survival of Y. pestis within infected fleas has been proposed repeatedly, the importance of flea diversity in Y. pestis persistence has seldom been addressed. These findings highlight the need to explicitly consider flea diversity within models of Y. pestis persistence.