There were 12,806 patients who met the study inclusion criteria. Of these, 698 (5.4%) were excluded: 222 (1.7%) had missing arterial blood gas data, 382 (3.0%) had missing hospital mortality data and 94 (0.7%) were ICU readmissions. The remaining 12,108 patients were drawn from among 125 contributing ICUs. The median number of cardiac arrest cases per hospital was 42 (IQR, 13-148). Baseline characteristics for all groups are given in Tables and .
| Table 1Baseline characteristics of the study patientsa |
| Table 2Baseline characteristics of the study hospitals |
The average age of patients was 64 years (SD ± 16), and 64% (7,802) were male. A total of 8,175 patients (68%) were at home prior to hospital admission and 5,756 patients (48%) were admitted to the ICU directly from the Emergency Department. One-third (3,978) of the patients had preexisting chronic comorbidities. The median APACHE III risk of death was 66% (IQR, 36%-84%). Most patients (8,904, 73.5%) had 'hypoxia/poor O2 transfer', while 1,285 (10.6%) were hyperoxic and 1,919 (15.9%) were normoxic. Isolated hypoxemia (PaO2 < 60 mmHg) was present in 1,168 patients (9.7%).
There were no significant differences in the measured physiological data between the three main oxygenation groups (Table ). Patients had a median lowest temperature of 34.9°C, and in 33% of the patients, this value was below 34.0°C. The median ICU length of stay for survivors from ICU admission to hospital discharge was 3.8 days (IQR, 2.0 to 7.1), and for nonsurvivors it was 1.5 days (IQR, 0.5 to 3.3). The median length of hospital stay for survivors was 14.9 days (IQR, 8.2 to 27.2), and for nonsurvivors it was 3.4 days (IQR, 1.5 to 8.1).
| Table 3Abnormal vital signs in the first 24 hours in intensive care unit and interventions |
Overall, 6,968 patients (58%) died in the hospital (Table ). Mortality was significantly lower (P < 0.0001) in the normoxia group than in either the hyperoxia group or the hypoxia/poor O2 transfer group. It was highest, however, in patients with 'isolated hypoxemia' (812 (70%) of 1,168 patients, P < 0.0001). The proportion of patients discharged directly to home was significantly higher in the normoxia group than in the other groups. The lowest rate of discharge to home was in patients with isolated hypoxemia (222 (19%) of 1,168 patients, P < 0.0001). Overall, 65% of survivors were discharged directly to home.
When the EMShockNet statistical model was replicated, 12 risk factors were significantly associated with in-hospital mortality (Table ). Data were well fitted by the model (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test,
P = 0.71), and the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.72. Hypoxia/poor O
2 transfer or hyperoxia were significantly associated with an increased risk of mortality in comparison to normoxia (OR 1.4 (95% CI, 1.3 to 1.6),
P < 0.0001, and OR 1.5 (95% CI, 1.3 to 1.8),
P < 0.0001, respectively). Once illness severity was added to the model (Table ) (Additional file
1, Statistical appendix, Model cluster 2), the magnitude of the effect size was markedly lower than in the original EMShockNet model (hypoxia versus normoxia: OR 1.2 (95% CI, 1.1 to 1.4),
P = 0.002; hyperoxia versus normoxia: OR 1.2 (95% CI, 1.0 to 1.5),
P = 0.04). This APACHE-based model showed improved discriminatory power in comparison to the EMShockNet model (AUC 0.79 when AP3no-ox was applied in isolation versus AUC 0.81 when AP3no-ox was applied in combination with other variables listed in Table ). Data were well fitted by the model (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test,
P = 0.42).
| Table 5Multiple logistic regression model with in-hospital mortality as dependent variable using EMShockNet model variablesa |
| Table 6Multiple regression models for in-hospital mortality and survival time using an APACHE III-based marker of severitya |
Propensity analysis (see Additional file
1, Statistical appendix, Model cluster 3) did not alter this risk or the significance of hyperoxia. However, when the secondary outcome of discharge to home was considered, oxygenation status was no longer a statistically significant predictor (
P = 0.64). Using a Cox proportional hazards regression model, we found both hyperoxia and hypoxia/poor O
2 transfer to increase the hazard of death in comparison to the normoxia group (HR 1.3 (95% CI, 1.1 to 1.4),
P < 0.001, and HR 1.3 (95% CI, 1.2 to 1.4),
P < 0.0001, respectively). After adjustment for the covariates described in Additional file
1, Statistical appendix, Model cluster 2, however, oxygenation status was no longer statistically significant (hyperoxia: OR 1.1 (95% CI, 1.0 to 1.2),
P = 0.20; hypoxia: OR 1.1 (95% CI, 1.0 to 1.2),
P = 0.01) (Table ).
When a PaO
2 of 200 mmHg or greater was used to define hyperoxia, after adjustment (Additional file
1, Statistical appendix, Model cluster 2), oxygenation status was a statistically significant predictor of outcome (
P = 0.002) (hyperoxia: OR 1.3 (95% CI, 1.1 to 1.5),
P = 0.01; hypoxia: OR 1.3 (95% CI, 1.1 to 1.5),
P = 0.001). When a PaO
2 of 400 mmHg or greater was used in sensitivity analysis after adjustment, however (Additional file
1, Statistical appendix, Model cluster 2), oxygenation status was no longer statistically significant (
P = 0.06) (hyperoxia: OR 1.0 (95% CI, 0.8 to 1.2),
P = 0.71; hypoxia: OR 1.1 (95% CI, 1.0 to 1.3),
P = 0.04).
When PaO
2 was divided into deciles and modelled as a predictor of hospital mortality, it was statistically significant at a univariate level (
P < 0.0001), but with only the lowest two deciles having ORs significantly greater than the norm (Figure ). After adjustment for FiO
2 and the covariates described in Additional file
1, Statistical appendix, Model cluster 2, PaO
2 was no longer predictive of hospital mortality (
P = 0.21), although those patients with isolated hypoxemia (PaO
2 < 60 mmHg) had a significantly greater risk (OR 1.2 (95% CI, 1.0 to 1.5),
P = 0.03) (Figure ). Importantly, 492 patients (42.1%) with isolated hypoxemia were receiving deliberate decreases of FiO
2 to <0.8 at the time of their hypoxemia. There was no statistical evidence that patients with higher PaO
2 levels had significantly greater risk of hospital mortality.
When the corresponding time period used by the EMShockNet study group [
6] (2001 to 2005) was considered, after adjustment (Additional file
1, Statistical appendix, Model cluster 2), oxygenation was not predictive of mortality (
P = 0.16) (hyperoxia: OR 1.3 (95% CI, 0.9 to 1.8),
P = 0.16; hypoxia: OR 1.3 (95% CI, 1.0 to 1.6),
P = 0.06). When more detailed information was obtained from a random sample of 100 patients, the worst PaO
2 value over the first 24 hours was significantly more representative of mean PaO
2 than the first PaO
2 value measured upon admission used by the EMShockNet study group [
6]. This was true for the first 24 hours (Pearson's
r = 0.70 versus Pearson's
r = 0.50,
P < 0.0001), the first 48 hours (Pearson's
r = 0.63 versus Pearson's
r = 0.38,
P < 0.0001) and the first 72 hours (Pearson's
r = 0.60 versus Pearson's
r = 0.34,
P < 0.0001).