In order for a test to be diagnostically useful, it should be highly sensitive and specific (both ideally >90%) and have a high positive predictive value (PPV). If a disease is much less frequent in the population than the positive test, the PPV will be low. Consider the ANA, for instance; a test widely used to screen for rheumatological conditions. The prevalence of a positive ANA among healthy children has been reported to be as high as 13–18%, depending on geographical location and cut-off titre.
5–7 However, rheumatological diseases are relatively rare in children: annual incidence rates for JIA and SLE have been reported at 0.8–23/100,000 and 0.3–0.4/100,000, respectively, with prevalences of 7–400/100,000 and 6–37/100,000.
1,2,8–11 Moreover, ANA are not specific to rheumatological conditions, but may also be positive in the setting of malignancy, infection, and drug reaction (e.g. minocycline-induced lupus).
7,12–14 Thus, even though the ANA is a highly sensitive test for SLE (98%), its PPV is low (0.10).
15Several studies and reviews have highlighted the futility of using a positive ANA as a rheumatological screen. In one study of 245 children referred to a paediatric service for a positive ANA (≥1:40), only 55% had a rheumatological diagnosis; thus, children with a positive ANA were not more likely to have a rheumatological diagnosis.
16 In another study of all ANA tests performed at the British Columbia Children’s Hospital (1,369), the ANA was positive (>1:20) in 67% of those with rheumatic disease and 64% without a rheumatic diagnosis, leading the authors to conclude that “a positive test has little or no predictive value”. Even in children with an unequivocally high titre of 1:320, only 31% had a rheumatological disease (see ).
15 Among children referred to a rheumatology service for musculoskeletal pain, children referred for a positive ANA or RF were “no more likely to have a chronic inflammatory disease” than those who were not referred for these tests.
17 Some evidence suggests that a positive ANA in a child without rheumatological disease is not predictive of future disease: in 24 children referred for non-rheumatologic musculoskeletal pain with a positive ANA but normal complement levels and negative extractable nuclear antigen (ENA) and double-stranded DNA (dsDNA), 21 remained ANA-positive over a mean follow-up of 61 months. Titres were variable over time, with 14 (58%) having titres of 1:320 or greater. Although this study was small, no children developed overt autoimmune disease.
18 The one clinical setting where a positive ANA may be useful for identifying children at risk is in idiopathic thrombocytopenia purpura (ITP). In a study of 87 children with ITP, 36% of the 25 children with a positive ANA (>1:40) developed further autoimmune disease compared with 0% of the ANA-negative children. Of note, 75% (six of eight) of those who progressed tested positively for more specific autoantibodies.
19 | Table 1Association of Antinuclear Antibody Titre with Presence of Rheumatic Disease |
Therefore, a positive ANA does not distinguish children with rheumatological disease and should not be used as a general screen for rheumatical conditions.