To quantify the accuracy of commonly used intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) predictive models in ICH patients with and without early do-not-resuscitate orders (DNR).
Spontaneous ICH cases (n = 487) from the Brain Attack Surveillance in Corpus Christi study (2000–2003) and the University of California, San Francisco (June 2001–May 2004) were included. Three models (the ICH Score, the Cincinnati model, and the ICH grading scale [ICH-GS]) were compared to observed 30-day mortality with a χ2 goodness-of-fit test first overall and then stratified by early DNR orders.
Median age was 71 years, 49% were female, median Glasgow Coma Scale score was 12, median ICH volume was 13 cm3, and 35% had early DNR orders. Overall observed 30-day mortality was 42.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 38.3–47.1), with the average model-predicted 30-day mortality for the ICH Score, Cincinnati model, and ICH-GS at 39.9% (p = 0.005), 40.4% (p = 0.007), and 53.9% (p < 0.001). However, for patients with early DNR orders, the observed 30-day mortality was 83.5% (95% CI 78.0–89.1), with the models predicting mortality of 64.8% (p < 0.001), 57.2% (p < 0.001), and 77.8% (p = 0.02). For patients without early DNR orders, the observed 30-day mortality was 20.8% (95% CI 16.5–25.7), with the models predicting mortality of 26.6% (p = 0.05), 31.4% (p < 0.001), and 41.1% (p < 0.001).
ICH prognostic model performance is substantially impacted when stratifying by early DNR status, possibly giving a false sense of model accuracy when DNR status is not considered. Clinicians should be cautious when applying these predictive models to individual patients.
|BASIC||= Brain Attack Surveillance in Corpus Christi;|
|CI||= confidence interval;|
|DNR||= do not resuscitate;|
|GCS||= Glasgow Coma Scale;|
|ICH||= intracerebral hemorrhage;|
|ICH-GS||= intracerebral hemorrhage grading scale;|
|ROC||= receiver operating characteristic;|
|SFGH||= San Francisco General Hospital;|
|UCSF||= University of California San Francisco.|