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Transmission model; EIR, prevalence and seasonality; and infectious reservoir.
(A) Flow diagram for the human component of the model. S, susceptible; T, treated clinical disease; D, untreated clinical disease; P, prophylaxis; A, asymptomatic patent infection; U, asymptomatic sub-patent infection. (B) The relationship between EIR and parasite prevalence in children under 15 y. Solid line: fitted relationship; filled circles: data representative of this age group; open circles: data from other age groups (mostly younger) used in the model fitting. (C) The relationship between transmission intensity characterized by EIR and seasonality, defined as the proportion of EIR over a single calendar year that occurs within the peak three months of transmission. The colours of the markers indicate the different transmission settings and the shapes the species. (D) The estimated age-specific infectious reservoir for the different transmission settings defined in (C), with the same colours as (C). This is defined as the product of the age-specific biting rate, age-specific prevalence states (T, D, A, and U), state-specific onward infectivity to mosquitoes and the size of the population at this age.