We recently conducted a nested case-control study in the Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention Study (ATBC) cohort of male Finnish smokers to examine whether vitamin D status, as determined by pre-diagnostic serum 25(OH) vitamin D concentrations, was associated with pancreatic cancer (
52). The study included 200 incident exocrine pancreatic cancer cases that occurred between 1985 and 2001 (up to 16.7 years of follow-up) and 400 controls who were alive and free of cancer at the time the case was diagnosed and matched to the cases by age and month of blood draw (
52). The later was to minimize misclassification of vitamin D status due to seasonal variation in exposure to sunlight. Contrary to expectations, in multivariable models adjusted for smoking habits, education, occupational activity, and serum retinol, higher as opposed to lower vitamin D concentrations were associated with a nearly three times the risk of pancreatic cancer (, highest vs. lowest quintile, >65.5 vs. ≤ 32.0 nmol/L: OR=2.92, 95% CI 1.56–5.48, p-trend=0.001) (
52). The association was strong among men who had their blood drawn in the winter season and the significant positive association remained after exclusion of cases diagnosed early during follow-up (
52). Season of blood draw, dietary vitamin D from foods (fish and margarine) and supplements, greater leisure activity, serum retinol, and primary school education or less were positive predictors of 25(OH) vitamin D status among controls in the study (
52), similar to the predictors in the HPFS (
47).
| Table 2Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of baseline fasting 25 (OH) vitamin D (D2 and D3) status and pancreatic cancer risk, among 200 cases and 400 matched control subjects from the Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Study1,2 |
The findings from the ATBC study may not be generalizable to populations that include non-smokers or populations that are vitamin D adequate (
52). Residual confounding by cigarette smoking dose was unlikely in our study since the smoking exposures were not confounders, the positive association between vitamin D and pancreatic cancer was not modified by cigarette smoking dose (p-interaction=0.36), and analyses restricted to men who reported exactly 20 cigarettes daily (n=53 cases, and 133 controls) yielded similar positive results (5
th quintile, OR=2.92) (
52). Vitamin D status could also be correlated to unmeasured exposures that may increase pancreatic cancer risk. In particular, organochlorine compounds have been associated with pancreatic cancer (
53;
54) and are potential contaminants of vitamin D-rich fish consumed in the Finnish diet (
55). Although fish intake was a predictor of vitamin D status in our study, controlling for fish did not attenuate the vitamin D/pancreatic cancer association (5
th vs. 1
st quintile vitamin D, HR=3.62, 95% CI 1.88–6.97, p-trend=0.0002) (
52). In addition, total or processed fish, nitrite and nitrate (potential pancreatic carcinogens in fish) (
56) intake were not associated with pancreatic cancer in our cohort (
57). The ATBC population had lower vitamin D status compared to North American populations (
58), however status similar to other Nordic populations (
59), which likely reflects Finland’s northern latitude with less solar ultraviolet B photon exposure and less cutaneous vitamin D synthesis (
52). Approximately 40 percent of the controls in our study were in the range of inadequacy (
8). Therefore, the association between vitamin D and pancreatic cancer could differ in populations with more adequate or high status.
Our results along with results of other studies (
60), suggest a seasonal effect, with cancer associations being more pronounced in participants who donated blood during the winter months than during the sunnier months. A single measurement of 25(OH) vitamin D may not reflect long-term vitamin D status; however in a steady state context, it represents the past several weeks to several months of exposure, and is known to display seasonal variability (
61). Subjects with high vitamin D concentrations during the sunny months may have either high or low vitamin D concentrations during the winter months, while those with high 25(OH) vitamin D during the winter months may have consistently higher vitamin D status throughout the year, regardless of season (
60). In other words, subjects who have high vitamin D concentrations in summer may more likely be misclassified as having high concentrations during other seasons. Although speculative, this could possibly explain the stronger associations among subjects who provided blood in the winter.
The nested case-control study in ATBC cohort, however, does have a number of epidemiologic design strengths. It is a prospective study with vitamin D status being assessed up to 16 years prior to cancer diagnosis, thereby reducing the influence of reverse causality. The measurement of serum 25(OH) vitamin D concentrations reflects internal dose and status which encompasses cutaneous production of the vitamin and is considered superior to vitamin D intake alone or exogenous predictors of vitamin D status. An experienced lab measured serum vitamin D
2 and D
3 on our study samples using a radioimmunoassay (RIA, DiaSorin, Inc., Stillwater, MN)(
52) and our blinded QC have similar reliability to others reported in the literature (
62;
63). The direction of our results is similar to that observed for digestive cancers (including pancreatic cancer), other than colorectal cancer in a recent prospective study conducted in the Third National Health and Nutrition Education Examination Survey (
64). In addition, in an earlier nested case-control study conducted in the ATBC cohort, 25(OH) vitamin D was inversely associated with colorectal cancer, particularly distal colorectal cancer (
65), a direction similar to that of other studies (
66). These observations lend external validity to association studies of 25(OH) vitamin D in the ATBC cohort.