Maraviroc (MVC) is the first CCR5 antagonist approved for the treatment of HIV-1 infection [
1] following the demonstration of its virological efficacy in treatment-experienced patients [
2,
3]. There is reasonable expectation that MVC or other CCR5-antagonists can be even better administered to treatment-naïve patients due to a higher prevalence of CCR5-tropic (R5) HIV-1 in this population as compared to more advanced patients [
4]. Due to the lack of virologic activity against CXCR4-tropic (X4) virus [
5], the administration of MVC is subject to the verification of an R5 virus population in the candidate patient. The enhanced sensitivity Trofile
® assay (ESTA) is the current gold standard phenotypic method for the determination of co-receptor tropism for the replicating viral population (i.e. plasma RNA), although other in-house or commercial tests are available, some of which use peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC DNA) [
6,
7]. The drawbacks of any phenotypic test include high costs, long turn-around time, and reduced efficiency in patients with low viremia. For this reason, there is a demand for a fast and cheap HIV-1 tropism assay to fully exploit CCR5 antagonists as a treatment option in clinical routine [
8,
9].
Given that most of the determinants of viral co-receptor tropism are based on polymorphisms of the third hypervariable region (V3) of the gp120, an alternative to the phenotypic approach is the usage of machine learning tools based on viral genotypic information. So called in-silico or virtual phenotype models may be indeed convenient for clinical practice due to the reduction of costs and turn-around time. During the recent years, several prediction models have been studied, from the first simple rule based on the polymorphisms at V3 codons 11 and 25, to the position specific scoring matrices (PSSM), neural networks, support vector machines, random forests and logistic models [
10-
20]. Some of these studies identified additional factors possibly impacting viral tropism, such as viral subtype and CD4 cell counts [
14,
16,
20]. Comparisons among genotypic and phenotypic tests have been carried out. The genotypic geno2pheno
[coreceptor] system [
16] was compared with the first generation Trofile
® and the TRT phenotypic assays [
21], showing 86.5% and 79.7% concordance, respectively. A study comparing the predictive performance of geno2pheno
[coreceptor], PSSM [
12] and other methods against the first-generation Trofile
® assay, concluded that current default implementations of co-receptor prediction algorithms were inadequate for predicting CXCR4 co-receptor usage in clinical samples, due to inability to detect low-level X4 virus [
22]. Another study found the concordance among genotype-based predictors and first-generation Trofile
® being as high as 91% [
23]. Variable performance of in-silico models was shown when considering non-B HIV-1 variants [
24-
26].
Concerning the clinical validation of phenotypic assays, another recent work focused on the performance of the Trofile
® test in predicting the virological response to a short-term maraviroc exposure in HIV-infected patients [
27]. Concomitantly, a few attempts to unveil mutational patterns associated to selection by CCR5 antagonists or resistance have been carried out [
28,
29], but the frequency and rate at which maraviroc resistance mutations emerge are not yet known.
The most awaited information is how in-silico tropism prediction models predict virological response to CCR5-antagonists, particularly when genotypic and phenotypic results disagree. In fact, although the ESTA should detect lower amounts of X4 virus compared to bulk genotyping, the X4 level threshold compromising in vivo CCR5-antagonist activity in vivo is currently unknown. In addition, ESTA cannot be performed at low or undetectable viral load (VL), while HIV-1 DNA genotyping can be easily performed in such cases; and this information, if adequately validated, might be easily employed for guiding treatment switches to CCR5 antagonists in virologically suppressed patients, due to toxicity or simplification issues. Finally, genotyping can also be used to detect HIV-1 mutations selected by MVC and possibly decreasing its effectiveness. Our study aimed at evaluating the accuracy of HIV-1 co-receptor tropism prediction by viral RNA and DNA genotyping, as well as the selection of V3 mutants in MVC-failing individuals.