Since first shown to be associated with human pigmentation characteristics, numerous investigators have demonstrated that natural variation in
MC1R is associated with increase risk of melanoma. Palmer et al. first reported that the melanoma risk conferred by
MC1R genotypes was strongest among persons with darker skin tones even after adjustment for hair color and suggested that risk associated with
MC1R may be modified by pigmentation characteristics.
5 This effect measure modification was later noted in a second study set in Australian and one set in Italy.
4, 6 Here, we confirmed that
MC1R variants are associated with increased melanoma risk in a U.S. population and extended previous findings to show that genetic risk is greater not only in those with darker hair or skin, but is largely limited to those characterized by phenotypes and sun exposure levels considered protective against melanoma development. The results of our meta-analyses further demonstrate increased risk of melanoma among person with dark hair, dark eyes, dark skin color, skin type III or IV, and low levels of recreational sun exposure. Thus, results from the PLC study together with results from these meta-analyses strongly suggest that
MC1R genotype provides information about melanoma risk beyond that of oculocutaneous phenotype and sun exposure. We conclude that the combination of
MC1R genotype and phenotype or sun exposure data may be vital to melanoma risk prediction in persons with otherwise “protective” phenotypes. Without knowledge of
MC1R genotypes, these individuals would otherwise be considered at low melanoma risk.
We considered several potential sources of bias in the PLC study. First, we compared melanoma cases who referred a control for study recruitment (n=339, 35%) to those who did not provide a referred control (n=621, 65%) and found no difference for most associations of pigmentation or sun exposure phenotypes; further,
MC1R genotype categories did not differ between these cases. Second, we compared characteristics of the 339 controls referred by melanoma cases to the 57 controls referred by patients with a clinically dysplastic nevus, all of whom were seen in the same ascertainment clinic. We did not observe a difference in
MC1R genotypes between these groups. As expected, controls referred by clinically dysplastic nevus patients were younger (mean age=42.3) than controls referred by melanoma cases (mean age=48.7; p=0.0007); they were also more likely to have a dysplastic nevus (χ
2=5.80, df=1, p=0.016) and more extensive freckling (χ
2=8.42, df=1, p=0.038). This suggests that patients diagnosed with dysplastic nevi were more likely to refer a control based on perceived increased risk of melanoma and the need to undergo a free full-body skin examination as part of this research. This selection pressure would tend to create a control group that overall was more similar to melanoma cases and a potential bias toward the null hypothesis. Despite these potential biases, all traditional risk factors were statistically significantly associated with melanoma status in our study; and strengths of associations were consistent with previously published work.
1, 2We defined high risk
MC1R [R] variants as p.D84E, p.R151C, p.R160W, p.D294H based on prior work,
12 but other classification schemes are possible. Secondary analysis considering the p.R142H, p.I155T, g.86_87insA, g.411delC, and g.537_538insC as [R] variants did not meaningfully alter interpretation of results. Our finding that carriage of two
MC1R [r] variants increases risk of melanoma by 70% (95% CI 1.0-2.7) is consistent with recent results demonstrating a per allele risk of 1.2 (95% CI 1.1-1.3) associated with carriage of the p.V60L, p.V92M, p.I155I, or p.R163Q variant
17 and with functional analysis demonstrating that the activity of the p.V60L and p.R163Q variant receptor is compromised compared to native
MC1R function.
18We acknowledge that for several of the meta-analyses, the total number of studies contributing information was small and power to detect heterogeneity of effect was modest. Interestingly, while many meta-analyses did demonstrate significant heterogeneity, it is notable that we did not find heterogeneity in the pooled estimate for any meta-analysis of MC1R [R] variants within the “protective” phenotypic or sun exposure strata. This suggests that the MC1R-phenotype relationship with melanoma risk is robust across various studies and further supports the credibility of this finding.
There is potential for a substantial public health impact of using
MC1R genetic information in conjunction with phenotype and/or exposure data. Raimondi et al. reported a combined etiologic fraction (EF) for the p.D84E, p.R151C, p.R160W, and p.D294H variants of 15.0%.
7 Under the assumption of a causal relationship between
MC1R and melanoma, this EF would mean that nearly 15% of melanomas are attributable to the genetic effects of these four
MC1R variants. This figure, however, likely underestimates the EF among those persons with protective phenotype and sun exposure measures because associations with [R] variants are stronger in these groups.
Using data from the present study and focusing on only the four
MC1R [R] variants for simplicity, the estimated EFs {[(OR-1) / OR] × proportion of cases carrying
MC1R [R] variants} ranged from 33% among dark haired individuals to 42% among dark eyed individuals. We applied these EFs to population estimates of the proportion of melanoma occurring in individuals within each protective phenotype as reported by the Genes, Environment, and Melanoma study. This study enrolled over 2400 cases with first primary melanoma from across nine international ascertainment centers.
19 These results suggest that between 8 to 33% of all melanomas could be detected early in their natural history and potentially cured by screening for
MC1R [R] variants among persons with protective phenotypes. Although two risk estimation models for melanoma have been published,
20, 21 neither had
MC1R genotypes available for analysis. Echoing prior commentary by Whiteman and Green,
22 we believe that this study establishes the carriage of
MC1R [R] variants as a risk factor to be considered when developing and testing new multivariable risk models. Its addition may improve a model's clinically utility by increasing calibration, improving risk categorization and enhancing classification accuracy.
23 Knowing
MC1R status can empower clinicians to emphasize skin self-examination and sun-protection behavior for those patients who otherwise believe that they are at lower risk for melanoma based on their phenotypic characteristics alone.