We hypothesized that individuals with low 10-year but high lifetime cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk would have a greater burden of subclinical atherosclerosis than those with low 10-year but low lifetime risk.
Methods and Results
We included 2988 individuals age ≤50 at exam year 15 from the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study and 1076 individuals age ≤50 at study entry from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). The 10-year risk and lifetime risk for CVD were estimated for each participant, permitting stratification into three groups: low 10-year (<10%)/low lifetime (<39%) risk, low 10-year (<10%)/high lifetime risk (≥39%), and high 10-year risk (≥10%) or diagnosed diabetes. Baseline levels and change in levels of subclinical atherosclerosis (coronary artery calcium [CAC] or carotid intima-media thickness [IMT]) were compared across risk strata. Among participants with low 10-year risk (91% of all participants) in CARDIA, those with a high lifetime risk compared to low lifetime risk had significantly greater common (0.83 vs 0.80 mm in men; 0.79 vs 0.75 mm in women) and internal (0.85 vs 0.80 mm; 0.80 vs 0.76 mm) carotid IMT, higher CAC prevalence (16.6 vs 9.8%; 7.1 vs 2.3%), and significantly greater incidence of CAC progression (22.3 vs 15.4%; 8.7 vs 5.3%). Similar results were observed in MESA.
Individuals with low 10-year but high lifetime risk have a greater subclinical disease burden and greater incidence of atherosclerotic progression compared to individuals with low 10-year and low lifetime risk, even at younger ages.
Keywords: epidemiology, risk estimation, prevention