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From:
Published online 2010 January 21. doi: 10.1186/1472-6963-10-22

Table 3

Predictive Ratios for Year-2 pharmacy costs for Disease, Drug Use and Cost Defined Groups.

Alternative Predictive Models
Dx-PMRx-PMDxRx-PM

nMean pharmacy expenditure Year-2 (€)U.S.
Weights
Spanish
Weights
U.S.
Weights
Spanish
Weights
U.S.
Weights
Spanish
Weights

Medical condition groups

 Hypertension16,5199310.7730.9990.8560.9890.8641.000
 Hyperlipidaemia13,1758110.7760.9250.9001.0070.9111.010
 Depression6,3268760.8471.0000.9610.9791.0091.000
 Diabetes5,7241,1800.7141.0000.7740.9840.7931.000
 Asthma4,0905220.9511.0000.9210.9590.9861.000
 CHF8641,3961.0311.0000.7550.9580.7741.000

Drug utilisation groups

 Antihypertensives18,2099900.7210.9180.8561.0000.8591.000
 Lipid-lowering9,9121,0840.6380.8110.8431.0000.8531.000
 Antidepressants8,7171,0230.6460.7740.9201.0000.9361.000
 Antidiabetics4,9471,2670.6540.9170.7850.9980.7971.002
 Antiasthmatics7,3037550.7160.8200.8701.0000.8741.000
 CHF3,9811,3490.6870.8220.7731.0000.7741.000

Year-1 spending percentiles

 Highest 1%8415,7080.1750.2400.2470.3450.2490.368
 Highest 5%4,2073,0260.3010.4210.4190.5480.4210.572
 Highest 10%8,4152,2210.3780.5190.5170.6420.5190.665
 Highest 30%25,2451,1680.5820.7360.7350.8350.7380.846
 Highest 50%42,0757660.7460.8590.8820.9350.8860.938

Predictive ratios reflect the ratio of expected pharmacy cost divided by the actual cost for each cohort (PR = 1 indicates perfect prediction, PR<1 indicates underprediction and PR>1 indicates overprediction). Medical condition groups consist of patients with at least 1 relevant diagnosis in Year-1; drug utilisation groups include those with at least one relevant pharmacy fill in Year-1.

Dx: physician assigned diagnosis. Rx: pharmacy prescriptions filled by physicians. PM: predictive model. CHF: Congestive Heart Failure.