Patients in the higher risk groups were older and generally had a higher mean number of comorbidities (Table for medical patients, Table for surgical patients). In particular, higher risk patients had a much higher prevalence of comorbidities that were strongly associated with mortality. For example, the proportion of medical patients within the very high risk group (top 10% of risk) who had metastatic cancer was 12.1% within Medicare and 13.6% within VA compared to 0.0% among low risk patients (bottom 25% of risk) in both populations (Table ). Expressed differently, 47% of Medicare and 83% of VA patients with metastatic cancer were in the very high risk group (not shown in table). Similar patterns were seen for liver disease, renal failure, and congestive heart failure. A diagnosis of hypertension on administrative data tends to be protective,
33 and a higher percentage of patients with hypertension was observed in the lower risk groups. Patterns were similar among surgical patients (Table ). The distribution of patients of differing severity was similar in hospitals of differing teaching intensity among both VA and Medicare medical and surgical patients (Tables and ).
| Table 1Characteristics of the Study Population - Combined Medical |
| Table 2Characteristics of the Study Population - Combined Surgical |
Examination of unadjusted trends in mortality for very high risk Medicare patients indicated that changes in mortality rates for high risk patients did not vary with teaching intensity (Fig. ). Among VA medical and surgical patients, the highest severity patients within the most teaching-intensive hospitals experienced a relative increase in mortality in post-reform year 1 compared to medical patients in less teaching-intensive hospitals. A relative decrease in mortality was seen in post-reform year 1 for the highest severity VA surgical patients in more teaching-intensive hospitals.
In examining the adjusted results among Medicare patients, we found that in the combined medical group the differential in mortality in more vs. less teaching-intensive hospitals (the ‘differential’) changed at similar rates among patients in the highest 10% of risk and the other 90% of patients in both post-reform years 1 (OR 1.01 [95% CI 0.90, 1.13]) and 2 (OR 0.90 [95% CI 0.80, 1.02]) (Table ). This group was the one group in which the test of controls indicated that pre-reform trends were different in more vs. less teaching-intensive hospitals so pre-reform year 1 was used as the baseline, and results were qualitatively similar. Findings were also similar for patients in the top 25% of risk compared to all others. Among Medicare patients in the combined surgical group, the differential in mortality changed at similar rates among patients in the highest 10% of risk and the other 90% of patients in both post-reform years 1 (OR 0.91 [95% CI 0.80, 1.04]) and 2 (OR 1.01 [95% CI 0.88, 1.15]) (Table ). Findings were similar for patients in the top 25% of risk compared to all others. These findings should be interpreted in the context of our previous findings of no significant relative changes in mortality for medical or surgical patients in more vs. less teaching-intensive hospitals in either post-reform year 1 or 2.
1 | Table 3Odds of Mortality and Failure-to-Rescue Post duty hour Reform in More vs. Less Teaching-intensive Hospitals |
Among Medicare surgical patients in the top 10% of risk, FTR rates changed at similar rates compared to patients in the bottom 90% of risk in more vs. less teaching-intensive hospitals (OR 0.94 [95% CI 0.80, 1.09]). Findings were similar for patients in the top 25% of risk compared to all others. Among all Medicare surgical patients, the FTR rate overall (not previously reported or shown in table) changed at similar rates in more vs. less teaching-intensive hospitals in both post-reform year 1 (OR 1.04 [95% CI 0.91, 1.11]) and post-reform year 2 (OR 1.00 [95% CI 0.94, 1.07]).
In stability analyses among Medicare patients in the highest 10% of risk, we found that for combined medical patients excluding patients admitted to hospitals in NY produced qualitatively similar results in post-reform year 1. However, the odds of mortality for patients in the top 10% of risk decreased in more vs. less teaching intensive hospitals to a greater degree than among the other 90% of patients (OR 0.87, 95% CI 0.77, 0.99) in post-reform year 2. Excluding patients who had metastatic cancer produced qualitatively similar results as the primary analyses. Exclusion of either patients admitted to hospitals in NY or patients with metastatic cancer produced qualitatively similar results for both the combined surgical mortality and the FTR analyses.
Among VA patients, the test of controls showed no evidence that pre-reform trends were different in more vs. less teaching-intensive hospitals so the entire pre-reform period was used as the baseline for all analyses. Adjusted analyses indicated that the odds of mortality for medical patients in the highest 10% of severity increased to a greater degree than among the other 90% of patients in more vs. less teaching-intensive hospitals in the first year post-reform (OR 1.63, [95% CI 1.08, 2.46]), with the relative odds of mortality being non-significantly higher by year 2 (OR 1.35, [95% CI 0.88, 2.07]. A qualitatively similar pattern was observed among patients in the highest 25% of risk compared to the lowest 75%. Among VA surgical patients, a relative decrease in the odds of mortality was not observed for patients in the top 10% of risk compared to lower risk patients in more vs. less teaching-intensive hospitals (OR 0.68 [95% CI 0.39, 1.20). Patients in the highest 25% of risk experienced lower odds of mortality relative to other patients in more vs. less teaching-intensive hospitals (OR 0.52 [95% CI 0.29, 0.96]. These findings should be viewed in the context of our previously reported findings of no overall change in mortality in more vs. less teaching-intensive VA hospitals in post-reform year 1 among medical or surgical patients, but significant relative improvements in mortality for medical (but not surgical) patients in more teaching-intensive VA hospitals in the second year post-reform only.
2FTR rates among VA patients in the highest 10% of risk changed at rates similar to that of other patients in more vs. less teaching-intensive hospitals in both post-reform year 1 (OR 0.67 [95% CI 0.35, 1.30]) and year 2 (OR 0.64 [95% CI 0.33, 1.24]). Similar patterns were observed in comparing changes in the odds of FTR among the highest 25% risk patients vs. all others. The overall FTR rates (not previously reported and not shown in table) changed at similar rates in more vs. less teaching-intensive hospitals in post-reform year 1 (OR 0.87 [95% CI 0.65, 1.15]) and year 2 (OR 0.94 [95% CI 0.70, 1.26]).
Excluding patients admitted to hospitals in New York State or patients who had metastatic cancer produced qualitatively similar results in both the mortality and FTR analyses.