Evidence from vaccination studies indicates a protective role for the Mamu-A*01–restricted CM9-specific CD8
+ T cell response (
9); this is consistent with experiments demonstrating that strict biological constraints operate in this region of the virus and limit the potential for escape through antigenic mutation (
25,
26). We therefore hypothesized that the clonotypic constitution of CM9-specific CD8
+ T cell populations could determine virologic outcome in macaques infected with SIV. Initially, we explored this possibility retrospectively using data reported in a previous study of 12 rhesus macaques acutely infected with SIVmac251 (
17). Among several candidate measures of clonal composition at week 5 after infection, the best predictor of postprimary set point pVL proved to be the number of public clonotypes within the CM9-specific CD8
+ T cell population (P = 0.0006 and r
2 = 0.71; and not depicted); this parameter is solely a measure of interindividual clonotype sharing within the antigen-specific repertoire and is distinct from both clonal diversity and TCR sequence. Multivariate linear regressions were also considered using stepwise model building to test for the influence of other potentially predictive parameters; such variables included absolute CD4
+ and CD8
+ T cell counts, mean log
10 pVL at time points before week 6, and additional measures of clonality such as the total number of clonotypes and the proportion of the response that comprised public clonotypes. None of these covariates lead to a model that was significantly more predictive of postprimary set point pVL (i.e., mean log
10 pVL from week 6 to 16) than the simple model based on the number of public clonotypes (unpublished data). Similarly, the inclusion of these other variables did not substantially change estimates of the relationship between the number of public clonotypes and postprimary set point pVL. Furthermore, the results were unaffected by small changes in parameterization of the response variable, such as modeling the mean log
10 pVL or using the area under the curve from week 10 to 16, or by altering the definition of public clonotype at the amino acid level as follows: (a) matching TCRBV, TCRB CDR3, and TCRBJ; (b) matching TCRB CDR3 and TCRBJ; and (c) matching TCRB CDR3 alone. Subsequently, we tested the hypothesis generated from this analysis using the dataset described in this study; indeed, the rationale for the current study was based on the initial finding, and this second stage was conducted prospectively with investigator blinding. There was a significant inverse relationship between the number of public clonotypes at week 2 after vaccination and the mean log
10 pVL from week 6 to 16 (Pearson: r = −0.81 and P = 0.014; Spearman: r = −0.82 and P = 0.015). The linear regression parameter (slope = −0.55) indicates that the estimated effect of each public clonotype was a mean reduction in postprimary pVL of 0.55 log
10 RNA copies/ml during this period (). Notably, no such correlation with outcome was observed for clonal diversity per se (Pearson: P = 0.11) despite a strong association between this parameter and the number of public clonotypes (Pearson: r = 0.85 and P = 0.007; diversity of clonotypes with standardization for clone sample size) (
23). There was no significant relationship between the number of public clonotypes at week 4 after infection and mean log
10 pVL from week 6 to 16 (Pearson: P = 0.92). As described, no other measures of clonality were significant predictors of postprimary set point pVL, either alone or as covariates (unpublished data); similarly, we could find no clonotypic correlates of either central memory CD4
+ T cell preservation (
18,
27,
28) or the number of challenges required for infection to occur. Finally, to validate the association further, the original cohort was revisited with public clonotypes assigned according to the same definition but compiled using the entire dataset from all 20 macaques. This expanded range for the number of public clonotypes exerted only a minimal influence on a simple linear regression performed against mean log
10 pVL from week 6 to 16 (P = 0.007 and r
2 = 0.54). In all analyses, results using the computed area under the pVL trajectory curve from week 6 to 16 were consistent with those derived using the mean pVL for the same period. No significant correlations were observed for parallel analyses of SL8/TL8-specific CD8
+ T cell clonotypes in either dataset (unpublished data); these negative findings act as an important control and are not unexpected given the propensity with which the infecting virus mutates at this site with minimal biological constraints to evade immune recognition and curtail the efficacy of the cognate response (
17,
18,
29–
31). Thus, although SL8/TL8-specific CD8
+ T cell populations are typically polyclonal in acute SIV infection and exhibit a substantial degree of TCR sharing (Fig. S1 and ), they are neither protective nor clonotypically diverse (
17,
30). Instead, the monomorphic nature of SL8/TL8-specific TCRs, which presumably require a TCRB CDR3 motif to engage a relatively featureless antigen regardless of interindividual sharing (
32), predisposes to viral escape at the level of TCR recognition (
17); this contrasts with the diverse range of clonotypes that can be mobilized in response to the CM9 epitope, and in the face of such considerations, the clonotypic composition of the SL8/TL8-specific response with respect to the degree of TCR sharing becomes largely irrelevant. Public clonotype usage can therefore be associated with either favorable or unfavorable biological outcomes according to the nature of the targeted epitope and the characteristics of the available cognate repertoire. Consequently, it is important to emphasize that the predictive value of “publicity” within epitope-specific CD8
+ T cell responses is context dependent.