Of the 2,449 children included in this analysis, 112 have developed persistent islet autoimmunity, i.e., one or more islet autoantibody (IAA, GAA, or IA-2A), in samples collected on two consecutive visits 3–6 months apart and positive at the last visit; 47 of these children have progressed to type 1 diabetes, defined by a random blood glucose measurement >200 mg/dl and/or an A1C >6.3% in the presence of diabetes symptoms.
Descriptive characteristics of the DAISY cohort are shown in . Affected (n = 112) compared with unaffected (n = 2,337) children were more likely to be non-Hispanic white, be positive for the HLA-DR3/4,DQB1*0302 genotype, and have a first-degree relative (FDR) with type 1 diabetes. Allele frequencies of PTPN22, INS, and CTLA4 SNPs are shown in . Affected subjects with persistent islet autoimmunity more often carried the risk alleles for PTPN22 and INS with, respectively, unadjusted HR 1.81 (95% CI 1.26–2.59, P = 0.001) and 1.48 (1.06–2.06, P = 0.019).
| TABLE 1Characteristics of the DAISY cohort |
| TABLE 2Association of three SNPs with conversion to persistent islet autoimmunity and progression from persistent islet autoimmunity to type 1 diabetes |
Cumulative incidence of the development of persistent islet autoimmunity and progression from islet autoimmunity to type 1 diabetes by genotypes for each SNP was estimated by survival analyses. The PTPN22 (R620W) TT genotype was associated with a significantly (P = 0.002) higher incidence of persistent islet autoimmunity (27.3% by age 10 years) than the CT (7.9%) or CC (5.3%) genotype (A). Cumulative incidence of progression to type 1 diabetes was also high in children with the PTPN22 TT genotype, with three of four children progressing to type 1 diabetes. However, these results are not statistically significant, likely due to the small sample size (B).
Analysis stratified by the presence of the HLA-DR3/4,DQB1*0302 genotype revealed the highest risk of islet autoimmunity in children carrying HLA-DR3/4,DQB1*0302 and PTPN22 TT genotypes (33.8% by the age of 10), although this is not statistically different from the risk in HLA-non-DR3/4,DQB1*0302, PTPN22 TT. The next highest risk genotypes were HLA-non-DR3/4,DQB1*0302, PTPN22 TT and HLA-DR3/4,DQB1*0302, PTPN22 CT, with the risks of islet autoimmunity by age 10 years being 25.0 and 24.8%, respectively (A).
The INS genotype appeared to modulate slightly (P = 0.02) the cumulative incidence of persistent islet autoimmunity (B). Within 10 years of detection of persistent islet autoimmunity, 7.8% of children with the INS AA genotype developed type 1 diabetes compared with 4.2 and 6.4% of those with AT and TT, respectively. There were no differences in the rate of progression from persistent islet autoimmunity to type 1 diabetes by the INS-23Hph1 genotypes (data not shown). Survival analyses of development of persistent islet autoimmunity and progression to type 1 diabetes showed no differences by CTLA-4 genotypes (data not shown).
We further analyzed the associations of these three SNPs with development of persistent islet autoimmunity and progression from persistent islet autoimmunity to type 1 diabetes in a multivariate parametric model controlling for the presence of the HLA-DR3/4,DQB1*0302 genotype, ethnicity, sex, family history of type 1 diabetes, and age at detection of islet autoimmunity (). The presence of the PTPN22 T allele was a significant independent predictor of the development of persistent islet autoimmunity (HR 1.83 [95% CI 1.27–2.63], P = 0.001). However, the PTPN22 T allele did not independently predict progression from islet autoimmunity to type 1 diabetes (0.98 [0.50–1.93], P = 0.96). The INS genotype did not independently predict islet autoimmunity or type 1 diabetes. The CTLA-4 G allele, normally associated with type 1 diabetes risk, did not independently predict islet autoimmunity but was negatively associated with progression from islet autoimmunity to type 1 diabetes (0.54 [0.33–0.88], P = 0.01). There was no interaction between the effect of the HLA-DR3/4,DQB1*0302 genotype and either PTPN22, INS, or CTLA-4 genotypes for the risk of islet autoimmunity or type 1 diabetes (data not shown).
We also performed analyses by cohort, i.e., including 1,371 children from the NEC and 1,078 children from the SOC (supplemental Tables 1 and 2, available in an online appendix at
http://diabetes.diabetesjournals.org/cgi/content/full/db08-1179/DC1). Affected NEC subjects with persistent islet autoimmunity more often carried the risk alleles for
INS and
CTLA4 with, respectively, unadjusted HR 1.91 (95% CI 1.08–3.36,
P = 0.03) and 1.58 (1.02–2.45,
P = 0.04), whereas affected SOC subjects with persistent islet autoimmunity more often carried the risk allele for
PTPN22 with unadjusted HR 1.95 (1.27–3.00,
P = 0.002). In a multivariate parametric model, the
PTPN22 T allele was associated with progression to persistent islet autoimmunity in SOC subjects (HR 2.17 [95% CI 1.41–3.33],
P < 0.001), whereas the
CTLA4 G allele was an independent predictor of the development of persistent islet autoimmunity in NEC subjects (1.57 [1.01–2.44],
P = 0.046). The
CTLA-4 G allele, normally associated with type 1 diabetes risk, was negatively associated with progression from islet autoimmunity to type 1 diabetes in SOC subjects only (0.41 [0.22–0.78],
P = 0.006). However, these results should be interpreted with caution due to the small sample size.