The western AP region harbours breeding populations of five of the world's 17 recognized penguin species (
Williams 1995). Among these, emperor (
Apdenodytes forsteri) and Adélie (
Pygoscelis adeliae) penguins are considered true Antarctic species, and exhibit life histories that are closely linked to the presence of sea ice (
Fraser et al. 1992;
Williams 1995;
Ainley 2002). The three remaining penguins, gentoo (
Pygoscelis papua), chinstrap (
P. antarctica) and macaroni (
Eudyptes chrysolophus) are regarded as sub-Antarctic species, with life histories that are characterized by ice avoidance (
Fraser et al. 1992;
Williams 1995). Although the historical record indicates that emperor and macaroni penguins were never abundant in the WAP (less than a few hundred breeding pairs of each), the combined total population of the three other species numbers close to 1.5 million breeding pairs (
Woehler 1993;
Fraser & Trivelpiece 1996). The dominant component of WAP regional avian biomass is thus represented by the populations of these three penguin species, an axiom that holds true even in winter due to their propensity to remain associated with their preferred polar or subpolar habitats (
Fraser et al. 1992;
Fraser & Trivelpiece 1996).
Penguins in the WAP are important top consumers of marine resources, a trophic position they also hold in virtually all sectors of Antarctica due to their relatively high abundances and clear dominance of local and regional avian biomass. However, unlike the situation in other regions of Antarctica, and particularly in the case of Adélie penguins, their diets are almost exclusively represented by one prey species,
E. superba, the Antarctic krill (
Volkman et al. 1980;
Ainley 2002;
Fraser & Hofmann 2003). Due to their local abundance in the Palmer Station area, accessibility of their colonies and their affinity for winter sea ice, Adélie penguins were selected as the focal top predator at the inception of Pal-LTER research programme (
Smith et al. 1995). As the LTER matured, the two ice intolerant species, gentoo and chinstrap penguins, were added, although detailed research on these two species lags the effort on Adélies.
As mobile, long-lived, upper-trophic level predators, penguins and other seabirds integrate the effects of variability in aspects of the physical and biological environment over large spatial and temporal scales (
Fraser & Trivelpiece 1996). As indicated previously, the marine environment of the WAP is experiencing some of the most rapid and significant warming on Earth, with the loss of sea ice perhaps representing one of the most dramatic manifestations of change in a key physical variable (). Research on penguins whose life histories exhibit opposing affinities to sea ice not surprisingly provided some of the first evidence linking these changes in the physical environment to the biological responses of top predators (
Fraser et al. 1992). More importantly, this research established the importance of understanding the role of life-history strategies within the context of the overall marine ecosystem response to climate variability. This focus underpins the formulation of hypotheses that guide the design of experiments and the interpretation of all aspects of the Pal-LTER penguin data (
Fraser & Trivelpiece 1996;
Fraser & Patterson 1997; Smith
et al. 1999;
Fraser & Hofmann 2003;
Patterson et al. 2003).
One of the mechanisms by which climate warming induces change in ecosystem structure and function is by disrupting the evolved life-history strategies of key component species (
Rhodes & Odum 1996). Certainly one of the most striking trends observed in the penguin population data is the change in community composition during the past three decades as ice-dependent Adélie penguins have decreased and ice-intolerant chinstrap and gentoo penguins have increased (). Indeed, the latter are the product of founder populations only recently established (1976 and 1994, respectively), and which may signal a unique event in the Palmer Station area given paleoecological evidence indicating that these two sub-Antarctic species have not been present locally for at least the past 700 years (
Emslie et al. 1998). This implies that the environmental conditions promoting these population increases are unprecedented within the temporal limits of this record.
Although the precise causal mechanisms associated with these population trends remain equivocal (
Fraser & Trivelpiece 1996), analyses focused especially on the longer-term Adélie penguin data suggest that interactions between at least two scales of processes, local and regional, that can be linked directly to the effects of rapid climate warming. As previously intimated, and particularly in view of recent analyses of several WAP penguin populations (
Woehler et al. 2001), there is wide concurrence that regional-scale trends are forced by a gradual decrease in the availability of winter sea ice (
Fraser et al. 1992). However, based on work at Palmer Station specifically, a more local source of population forcing has also been identified. This appears to be related to increasing snow precipitation in the WAP (
Thompson et al. 1994), which affects Adélie penguin colonies breeding on landscapes where snow accumulations are enhanced by landscape aspect and prevailing winds during spring storms. These colonies have over the past 30 years decreased significantly faster than colonies where wind-scour abates snow accumulations (
Fraser & Patterson 1997;
Patterson et al. 2003). Interestingly, Palmer populations of the ice-intolerant chinstrap and gentoo penguins have maintained their sub-Antarctic breeding chronologies (
Williams 1995); hence by breeding approximately three weeks later than Adélies, chinstrap and gentoo penguins in effect permit spring melt to circumvent the negative effects of snow accumulation.
These two scales of processes operate by producing a spatial and/or temporal mismatch between needed resources and critical aspects of a species' life history. What remains a key challenge, however, is integrating a food web perspective within the context of this dynamics. Changes in the abundance and availability of prey must surely have a role in altering the threshold states that lead to optimal habitat conditions for one species but suboptimal conditions for another (
Fraser et al. 1992;
Fraser & Trivelpiece 1996), yet integrating these factors into a model in which sea ice seems quite well established as a key determinant of changes in predator populations has been problematic (Smith
et al. 1999). Palmer Station Adélie penguin responses to changes in krill abundance are temporally coherent with those of other krill-dependent predators over spatial scales that include the northern WAP and much of the southwest Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean (
Fraser & Hofmann 2003). The response variables, moreover, are diverse, encompassing a range of factors from changes in foraging trip durations to population trajectories, and involve other predator groups besides penguins. A key conclusion to be drawn from these findings, given the large spatial scales over which changes in krill abundance affect predator responses, is that the causal mechanisms that determine how the presence or absence of sea ice tips the balance in favour of one life-history strategy over another may actually operate over much smaller scales than previously thought. These scales may encompass, for example, the factors that determine access to breeding sites or traditional wintering areas (
Fraser & Trivelpiece 1996), and incorporate predator responses that result from species-specific competitive abilities for local prey resources (
Lynnes et al. 2002,
2004). Continuing Pal-LTER research on penguins is currently starting to focus on the possible relevance of these small-scale processes within the scope of understanding regional demographic responses to climate change.