This analysis included 309 metropolitan areas encompassing 45,710 tracts and > 79% of the population of the United States, including 76% of non-Hispanic whites, 85% of non-Hispanic blacks, 91% of Hispanics (of any race), 87% of Asian/Pacific Islanders, and 53% of American Indians/Native Alaskans. The average individual lifetime cancer risk estimates for each metropolitan statistical area ranged across several orders of magnitude, with some of the highest risk estimates found in southern California and in the midwestern region (data not shown).
presents the distribution of estimated cancer risk from air toxics in the U.S. census tracts. The average estimated cancer risk per million from all emissions sources combined was 631.9. This estimate declines significantly after removing diesel (115.5 per million; ). Generally, cancer risk estimates exceeded the regulatory goal of one in a million by several orders of magnitude (
Clean Air Act Amendments 1990). Among source contributions, mobile sources make the most significant contribution to estimated cancer risk (on average, 88.3% of total risk with diesel particulates included and 35.7% excluding diesel particulates). This is followed by area sources (7% including diesel particulates and 36% excluding diesel particulates) and then major point sources that contribute less on average to the overall cancer risk burden (1.3% including diesel particulates and 7% excluding diesel particulates).
| Table 1Distribution of estimated cancer risks in continental U.S. metropolitan areas, per million. |
| Table 2Distribution of estimated cancer risks in continental U.S. metropolitan areas (excluding diesel particulate matter), per million. |
maps patterns of racial segregation across the 309 metropolitan areas included in this analysis. The background colors indicate how we classified states into regional categories: western, border, southern, northeastern, mid-western, and mountains and plains states. The smaller, darker shapes are metropolitan areas. The map indicates that the northeastern, southern, and midwestern regions have some of the highest levels of multiethnic/racial segregation in the country, whereas the western and mountain and plains states tend to have lower levels of segregation. displays the distribution of metropolitan areas, tracts, total population, and racial/ethnic groups by three segregation categories (moderate/low, highly, or extremely segregated). About 75% of metropolitan areas were either highly or extremely segregated (Dm ≥ 0.40), and nearly 40% of the census tracts included in this analysis were extremely segregated (Dm ≥ 0.60). Nationally, nearly 50% of non-Hispanic blacks, 37% of whites, more than 20% of Hispanics, and 24% of Asians live in extremely segregated metropolitan areas. These patterns vary significantly by geographic region, particularly in the northeastern and midwestern states, where segregation levels are highest.
| Table 3Distribution of racial/ethnic groups by level of metropolitan area segregation. |
shows the racial/ethnic distribution of estimated cancer risk associated with air toxics across segregation categories. The
y-axis shows a population-weighted individual excess cancer risk estimate for each racial/ethnic group and segregation category. Each line in the graph represents one of the five racial/ethnic groups, with one line representing the total population. The data points to the left are average cancer risk estimates for each racial/ethnic group for all segregation categories combined. The graph shows two patterns: that cancer risks across all metropolitan areas increase with increasing segregation levels for all racial/ethnic groups, and that overall, Hispanics and Asians, followed by African Americans, have some of the highest cancer risk burdens in metropolitan areas with higher segregation levels compared with the average risk across all groups and compared with whites and Native Americans. shows the racial breakdown of cancer risk burden by poverty level. Although there is a persistent racial/ethnic gap in cancer risk across all levels of poverty, there is no gradient that increases with rising area-level poverty, which suggests that the effect of segregation is independent of the impact of poverty on the exposure burdens across racial categories. The data were further examined to assess the racial/ethnic distribution of cancer risk across three segregation levels for each of the three area-level poverty categories. The same positive segregation gradient persisted for each racial group, regardless of poverty category (data not shown). This suggests that although segregation concentrates poverty (
Massey and Fischer 2000;
Massey et al. 1991), area-level poverty functions independently of segregation to affect estimated cancer risks associated with ambient pollutants. These distributional patterns were very similar when area and mobile source emissions were examined separately. For point-source emissions alone, the gradient across segregation categories was not observed (data not shown).
To examine these variables in a multivariate analysis, we assessed the relationship between segregation and estimated cancer risk, stratifying by race/ethnicity, and calculating risk ratios for each level of segregation, using low/moderate segregation as the referent group. shows the unadjusted model without controlling for key area-level socioeconomic measures. This model shows a strong cancer risk gradient by segregation category for the total population [highly segregated: relative cancer risk (RCR) = 1.73; extremely segregated: RCR = 2.63] and indicates gradients for each racial/ethnic category with the strongest gradient observed for Hispanics (highly segregated: RCR = 2.44; extremely segregated: RCR = 6.40) and Asians (highly segregated: RCR = 2.25; extremely segregated: RCR = 3.90). displays the adjusted model controlling for state regional grouping (six regions), metropolitan area population size, county-level voter turnout, tract-level poverty, tract-level material deprivation score (Townsend index), and tract-level population density. Results indicate that even after controlling for tract-level socioeconomic status (SES) measures, increasing segregation ampli-fies the cancer risks associated with ambient air toxics for all racial groups combined (highly segregated: RCR = 1.04; extremely segregated: RCR = 1.32). This effect of segregation is strongest for Hispanics (highly segregated: RCR = 1.09; extremely segregated: RCR = 1.74) but is also evident, albeit somewhat weaker, among whites, African Americans, and Asians. The models were also run for the source categories separately and showed strong gradients for mobile and area emission sources and nonsignificant effects for point sources (data not shown).
| Table 4Relative estimated lifetime cancer incidence associated with ambient air toxics [RCR (95% CI)], continental U.S. metropolitan areas.a |
| Table 5Relative estimated lifetime cancer incidence associated with ambient air toxics [RCR (95% CI)], continental U.S. metropolitan areas.a |