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BACKGROUND: Nicotine replacement therapy is effective in helping people to give up smoking. The three forms now available--transdermal patches, chewing gum and nasal spray--deliver nicotine at different rates and to different levels. Therefore, it might be expected that smokers with different characteristics, and at different levels of nicotine dependence, will be helped more by one or other method. AIM: The aim of the study was to examine whether the effectiveness of transdermal patches is related to nicotine dependence or to other smoker characteristics and to investigate factors predicting smoking cessation using patches. METHOD: Data from a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of nicotine transdermal patches were analysed retrospectively. The trial, conducted in 1990-1992, involved 1686 patients recruited from 19 general practices in Oxfordshire. The main outcome measure was continuous smoking cessation from 8 to 52 weeks after the start of patch use, biochemically validated at 12, 24 and 52 weeks. The effectiveness of the patches was measured by the relative odds of sustained cessation using nicotine patches compared with placebo patches. RESULTS: Nicotine transdermal patches were more effective in smokers with moderate nicotine dependence [odds ratio (OR) 1.94; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.24-3.04] than in mildly or highly dependent smokers (OR 0.98; 95% CI 0.58-1.65) (difference in ORs P < 0.05) and more effective in those aged 24-49 years (OR 1.89; 95% CI 1.24-2.87) than in older smokers aged 50-65 years (OR 0.88; 95% CI 0.49-1.59) (difference in ORs P < 0.05). Abstinence from smoking in the first week of the trial was the strongest predictor of sustained cessation and was more common among smokers using nicotine patches than those using placebo patches (33% of 842 compared with 22% of 844; P < 0.001). Of first-week abstainers, 25 and 28% of 277 and 182 in the nicotine and placebo groups, respectively, achieved sustained cessation compared with 4% of 565 and 2% of 662 first-week smokers. CONCLUSION: Nicotine transdermal patches were most effective for smokers with moderate nicotine dependence and for younger smokers. Early abstinence from smoking was the strongest predictor of sustained cessation. A week's trial of the patch proceeding to longer term use if abstinence is achieved may be an effective policy.